GKP

Hi Folks, been a few days since i had a look at this.

Here's some new charts and a summary. i don't have any positions here ATM, and i intend to side step this for the time being. Below is my thoughts, based on what i see, no emotions or bias included lol

This bounced of the bottom of down trend channel at 61p, wish i spotted and traded that!
This is a chart, going back to July 2013.
This shows the downside target of 50/53p as soon as early Oct.
lets remember, we have a gap at around 53p. Just Coincidence?? i think not!
For the upside this could test the top of the channel at around 100p, and still be firmly in down trend.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...is%3D&symbol=L%5EGKP

This is a close up chart. Note how similar the rise and subsequent sell off is from this rise, and the one in early July!
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...wOqs=&symbol=L%5EGKP

Like i suggest this is best left alone, if one can't resist going long, wait for a break of the 20 day at around 79p, as this could provide the strength for the push to 100p area.
However i feel this is unlikely, and from a technical perspective this very bearish.

In summary, IMHO keep clear of this, it's not looking good, i expect this to slowly make it's way down to low 50's over the coming weeks. I like to bottom fish, but this just does not have risk/reward for me ATM. i will see where we are in a week or two, or if we hit 53p. It is very possible we could go lower than 53p, the down trend could just keep going.

F4T, Yep, i'm still bearish on this.

Good luck however you play this, it's certainly not for the faint hearted
Sorry if people wanted a more bullish view here, but this is honestly what i see.

Best Regards,
trendfriend.

EarlGrey, not sure what your question was tbh. A close above 72.25 is a close above 72.25 and a close above any resistance is usually positive. Not yesterday obviously.

My five penneth

If we push on from here and tomorrow head towards yesterdays high of 75.67 and close above it then we will have a possible 123 low formation with an initial target of 83.84.

Looking at the action on level 2 today there were lots of MM's activity filling quite large orders
so as long as we don't go below todays low ( would give different target) and longer term the 61 low then this could be on.

www.screencast.com/t/xTkqkkmL0hc

F4T:

"A close above 72.25 needs to be consolidated/cemented before a move higher."

I had wondered if it made a difference that the close above 72.25 was higher than the last O trade buy. Or put another way, for a close above 72.25 to be significant does it really have to be within the trading range at close rather than above it? Thoughts?

not TA of course but possibly a lot of PIs only now waking up to how close IS was/is to GKP's major oil field...

My timing is perfect of course! But this is often about patience, particularly with GKP which is played with/traded a lot and has many fundamental influences.

I am comfortable with my medium term view. That is what the TA is telling me and I trust it to prove correct most of the time (but not all as it is not a science). A close above 72.25 needs to be consolidated/cemented before a move higher.

Let's see where we are at the end of the week.

F4T