GKP

Hi F4T

Interesting action this morning.

Do you think we have reached the bottom? Resistance at 53.75p?

Thanks

Hi All,

some good comments here today.

Have had a good look at the charts again here and things don't look good at all. There are very few positives here or in the markets in general, which are broken - the US particularly and this drives the other markets.

The negatives are well documented on the previous posts but we must never give up on the charts. There will be a bottom as stocks cannot keep falling forever (aside from serial share re-denominations lol!). They just go out of business and companies with assets don't do that. They are sold off cheap. I am just putting some perspective here.

Technical analysis tells us what market participants are doing and this often gives us an indication as to what might happen going forward. That is why we are on this website, to share those views.

So what do the charts show us?

The daily: pretty much all negative until the well documented supports below 40,37,18.50. RSI support broken / all trendlines broken. The only small positives are the volume friday (11MM) and some medium term MACD divergence from April.

The weekly: Weekly always trumps the daily. I attach a chart for this one as it none have been posted for this time frame yet.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...UQ%3D&symbol=A%5EAPT

Chart also looks terrible, but with a couple of positive elements. The MACD divergence remains plus some marginal RSI divergence. Also RSI is at trendline support. There are no gaps on the weekly, so support below is at 37 (per Remo) and 21.50 (May 09). Weekly volume also not bad for last week.

The Monthly: Monthly always trumps the weekly. Remember though that the month has only just started, so we are assuming that everything stays the same until 30/10/14. But I will post it anyway for discussion purposes.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...4o%3D&symbol=A%5EAPT

Similar to the weekly, in that chart looks terrible but RSI (currently) at support. Minor divergence on histogram only.

My point is that we never abandon the charts even in market turmoil as sometimes it is all we have. After the past 6 years we are now experts in turmoil


So, from all the charts, on the higher timeframes the main support trendline has been broken but the RSI is at support. RSI generally leads price, i.e. breaks first. There is also some divergence that has been there for a while.

My key indicators are always price, volume and RSI. I look for all 3 to agree before acting.
Volume has been poor recently on the fall. I have documented this well on this website. Fridays volume on the daily wasn't bad (11MM) but once again not enough on it's own to indicate to me a possible bottom.

I will be watching volume carefully tomorrow am when I expect GKP to set a new low (given US market activity Friday and an expected follow through in Asia). A candle with a longish tail and maybe a days volume of 10-15MM might tempt me, but otherwise I will remain in cash.

My overriding point is that general markets always turn as this one will and a turning tide raises all boats. The question is when will it turn?

In the above I have scratched around for some positives in a sea of negatives so readers please take that on board.

F4T

Sound advice remo and definitely so if my GKP experience is anything to go by….

First bought a few in Feb 12 - just a 1000 at 392…… all on the strength of a recommendation from a colleague (and I had a bit too much time on my hands and some spare funds).

Then I found the iii BB….. and got well and truly sucked in to the blatant jam-tomorrow get-rich-quick no-brainer once in a lifetime opportunity bang-gone-tomorrow-for-$63/share etc.etc. so as the SP came down I kept averaging down. One way or another I'm ashamed to admit that I ended up with 25K at 212 av. I held and held. (I often think back to the Court Case verdict day when I was a few grand in front and so rue not selling and taking a modest profit!)

Thing is, after a certain point (once a few grand down), one can't face the prospect of crystallising a large paper loss as so doing also crystallises one's own perceived failure in being such a mug in the first place.

Of course it certainly doesn't help that the company has one way or another overseen and even instigated (by either action or omission) its own SP destruction.

I like so many LTHrs reached the point where I thought a) if I get out of this it's nailed on that the big shock and awe rns is bound to appear with the share going back to 450+ and I'll have rounded all of my investment failures off with the last and biggest i.e. capitulating at the bottom and losing out on the big leg back up and b) thinking - somewhat ludicrously - well that's it it's sh!t or bust in it until the end balls of steel required and such.

Eventually the idea of capital protection took precedence and I sold out between 112 and 75 (last 5K). I'm comfortable enough given my modest lifestyle requirements but losing that money (thankfully not money I needed/need) has really stung.

So to anyone reading this who is relatively new to investing?

1. Only play with what you can comfortably afford to lose.
2. DO NOT fall in love with a share and get sucked into BB hype/ramping - DYOR (far harder and dryer work than basing your investing decisions on a BB, but ESSENTIAL).
3. Stay flexible don't get stuck in one mindset e.g. 'this is nailed on to make me rich' or such.
4. DON'T GET GREEDY: TAKE A MODEST PROFIT WHEN IT'S THERE!
4. Spread your portfolio risk over a number of holdings/stocks.
5. Be wary of AIM in particular: it's little more than a casino where the odds are heavily in favour of the house not some upstart like me sat in front of a PC thinking easy money is to be made! The only 'easy' money to be made is by Mr Market and company BoDs. Just look at a GKP chart this last few years: looks like someone giving you the big finger right? Same pattern for so many AIM oilers such as BLVN, XEL etc.
6. DYOR. If going long, DYOR. If trading based on TA DYOR.
7. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH! Try and be coldly analytical rather than falling victim to fear and greed.
8. Avoid trying to catch the bottom of a SP clearly in downward trend: look for a 1-2-3 IN instead (as advocated so often here).

Anyway, that's enough non-TA ramblings from me. If it makes just ONE newish investor out there think more carefully about what they're doing, then it was worth my time writing it (as well as being somewhat cathartic for me!)

Best to all,

Earl.

Nice post Remo.

I must say I really appreciate everyones comments on here, especially you and F4T.

I am an amateur trader and I'm looking to learn.

Its sad to see gkp going so low as i know a lot of people are holding this from the highs.Whats happened to gkp happens all the time with shares and gone are the days of long term investments in single companies.This is the reason why im a short term trader as ive seen this time and time again.Ive been trading for nearly 25 years now and have seen the good times and the bad and have seen so many good companies go down just like gkp has and then some of them went straight back up so this can also happen, but every time the technicals shows the way first with a simple 123 low breakout.
GKP is currently a sell with regards to technicals and if this did come back to 54 area then that would be a good area to short this on a first attempt basis., but if your looking to go long then its just a matter of waiting for a 123 low signal.Until then just stand a side.
If the news changes in iraq then this could go back up but thats the only thing that can help gkp.
So bottom line ,,,Dont keep buying thinking that its hit the low as thats the biggest mistake people make with regards to trading. Wait for a true buy signal to top up your losing position.

I dont hold any shares in gkp but once i do ill let you guys know first but im sure a lot of you will know before me as you guys do know what i look for.
good luck guys and girls and i hope this changes soon.

Bang on the Money Remo, this is dangerous.
This has no respect for any technicals at all, you have a falling knifes, this has to be ultimate of falling knifes imho!

This could bounce at any time to be fair, its certianly due one, the RSI is coming to oversold level.
Can see from your chart, 37p could be the next stop.
It finished on the low of the day, those candles give no hope or optimism at all, its pretty nasty stuff imo.
If it breaks below 37p, I think its possible this could hit the next gap 13.5p/18p.
below this support is at 11p.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...T5gQ=&symbol=L%5EGKP

This chart how every support has been left behind.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...3D&symbol=DOWI%3ADJI

Its sad to be talking of these low numbers with GKP, this had so much potential.
Lets see how this goes next week, it has a mind of its own thats for sure.

Regards,
Trendfriend.