GKP

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...oQ%3D&symbol=A%5EAPT

Hi All,

Great run up from 42/43 but it was an easy exit for me at 73.75 last week (one of the breakpoints on the fall).The extended run in such a short time and touching RSI resistance was more than enough. The loss of volume following the spike confirmed.

The rise didn't make 77.50 let alone the long term downtrend line (currently ~88). I expect this to drift downwards until we find out how much hot air is circling.

We should see the mid 50's at minimum in the near future IMO (66.8% fib) but it could bounce a little when it meets the rising short term trendline (red). The 50% retracement point is at 59/60.

I'll wait for 50p and see if we get there again. If we do i'll probably wait further ;o). It's all about patience with GKP, always has been.

GL
F4T

Edit:
Just read Koolkeith's note after posting.
I note now the shadow downtrend line as resistance to the rise (I use closing); this does make things a little more interesting. There have clearly been alot of bets placed on 13th Nov.

Perhaps we have just formed the "2" in a 1, 2, 3 low type breakout?
Looking to enter on the retest "3"

Hi Count,

Gotta agree that until that descending resistance of over 2 years is broken, this is technically still in a downtrend. As you say it came very close to a breakout - I'd personally like to see a break of that resistance followed by a break of previous high of 89.75p for a comfortable call of change in trend, but that's a big rise to miss out on. I guess the safest strategy would be to buy the inevitable backtest after a break of descending resistance if it happened, with a tight stop to avoid any fakeouts. What is encouraging from my chart set up is the fact this has had three closes above the 12day exponential average on the daily and is also sat above the various exponential 34 day moving averages which is set on opens and closes and median to create a 'tunnel'. From experience with this set up, when the blue 12 day crosses through the 34 day tunnel - we could see a powerful move up. It is soooo nearly ready to do so, but not guaranteed. If it does I'd expect to see it move up to the 80's but it's a questionable 'if' at the moment. I won't mention the forming of a potential inverse head and shoulders this time - too early

Daily:



clearer with link: screencast.com/t/TE5JAvcv

Weekly:



clearer with link: screencast.com/t/01a0SelF

Food for thought - What's your thoughts on this as you have been spot on.

Thanks in advance and good luck all.

Hi Orsotoro,
No long term downtrend line from 465 wasn't broken yet but came close on 30 Oct with high of 76 imo. So we are still in downtrend.
I'd wait for F4T's update, he is usually spot on with his TA.
ATB

Totally see what you are saying Count, but was the downtrend broken by that first rise, in your opinion ?

Hi orsotoro, another interpretation is that we already just witnessed the 123 low complete.
Starting with the bottom 42.25, we have 1 = 57.75, 2 = 49.10.
screencast.com/t/N2T6AZY7jE