Premier - PMO

I think a gap close is still possible this week but it is unlikely that there will be a close below my trendline at 59.
I see today's rally fading as the day progresses, or into tomorrow. Will be interesting where we close. Just below 70 would be my call.

Volume indicates that a bottom is being or has been formed.

Just when it looked like it was going to topple over.......a nice rally!!

Anyway i'm seeing a weekly close above 75/75.p being the 20 and 50 day ema lines as the key here.....

no break and close no higher....

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Can't disagree with TF's earlier post, particularly re: RSI lines. I won;t post charts as TF has covered the bearish summary. My chart trendlines differ a little though.

Daily trendline support today is at 59 and rising. Gap at 60 and 200sma resistance at 71.30
Weekly trendline support at 64.50 (this stopped Fridays descent)
Monthly trendline support at 71

My analysis suggests the following:
1. We should see a gap close at 60 this week
2. Monthly chart is very worrying. SP needs to close above 71 tomorrow (month end) to repair the fall
3. Daily 2000sma is at 71.30 currently, so a close above this level also repairs the daily.
4. A close by tomorrow above 71/71.30 will repair all RSI supports.

So, 71 and 59 are the key levels today.
After this mornings price action to 70 it will be fascinating to still see a gap close at 60 before tomorrow and a repair at 71.30 - I think the general markets are set up to support the gap close but I am doubtful about the monthly chart repairing itself. Let's see

F4T

PS: If you are gong to short do it now IMO. It is too risky to short anything below the mid to high 60's in my opinion and that window could disappear rapidly. It's not for me.

Short would be the right direction to trade here....but firstly this still above 60p and 50p, both strong support levels, and places where buyers have come in for the stock...

If you wait for those levels to go, not much meat left on the bone then....so form a r/r point not worth while...
Any kind of t/o talk, could well send it to the moon......

best trade, no trade imvho....

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

TF,

Thank you, thank you, thank you - a very educational post, for which I am very grateful.

Given your bearish view point, do you not think it worth shorting any rally next week? With (even the outside) possibility of 20-24p, any short with a stop >80p represents a good risk/reward?

Been saying this looks bearish since it was in the mid 80's, and after staying on the sidelines during the drop, i was eyeing that 60p area as well, as a decent entry here.....

But i have changed my mind now.....and i will try to show you why.
first the daily.
its in this trend channel, and approaching the support trendline.....but will it hold?
Look at that rsi support trendline!
Its about to get busted.......right? also note how all three ema lines are pointing south.....


Next the weekly...
Again note the rsi.....bang on support....
If that rsi fails, it could well be a sign that 60p will not hold.....i certainly would only buy if the rsi holds.....no hold of trendline no trade...
If 60p fails, a pivot support level is at 50p.....if that gets taken out....

A weekly break of that rsi(if it happens) is suggestive of longer term weakness....


Finally the monthly.
You can see this halted at resistance at 100p.....and is that a bear flag on the monthly???


so in summary i'm no hurry to buy back here, let it play out, settle down, and then we take it from there...
This needs to hold 60p......and 50p is last stand, and vital here imvho.....because if that fails, i see at least a decent possibility of this going lower, a lot lower, possibly as low as the gap between 20 and 24p.....
On the flip side if 60p holds, and this rebounds above the 20 day ema line.....then it may be worth entering long....lets see.....
Atm, this has the potential at least of getting nasty...

Just my view here, and the best trade here atm, is no trade at all.....stay out and watch imvho...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend