EURGBP

I have taken half off at 23% retracement, trailing stops will do the rest!

I missed the short at the gap support, I was being greedy and looking for the 61.8& retracement.
The Eur has made a fractional new low but I am thinking there will be a little bounce due to the bullish engulfing candle, to the 38% retracement from this decline. It may not be strong enough to get that high, so a trailing stop loss and limit is in place, I have just gone long at 8421, looking for 8489, stop at 8408 the bottom of bullish engulfing candle.



Best wishes
ft

Good afternoon all,
I have attempted to put together a view on the EURGBP as the end of the month is upon us.
As it stands this month, a bearish engulfing pattern appears to be forming and rejecting the down trend line.



The bearish engulfing candle also corresponds with a rejection of the 78.6% retracement.



What I find very interesting to support the bearish view of the EUR is the Daily P&F chart.



For there to be three bearish targets to the range of 0.715-0.73 gives the bearish view greater significance. To add to the bearish engulfing candles, there has also been a sell signal given on the Daily P&F chart, (however, the Daily chart is still in an up tend and so technically sell signals should not be taken against the trend. In light of the bearish view with the bearish targets, I think there is a good risk reward in looking for short positions.)

Coincidently the targets would correlate with the fib extensions.



On a shorter term basis.....

On the Daily candle chart, the EUR appears to be oversold (Stochastic) and is trying to bounce off the 38.2% retracement.



A closer look appears to be a spinning top showing clear indecision.



On a 4 hourly basis, there is a bullish engulfing candle and a falling wedge indicating a bit of bullishness may be sneaking in prior to a continuation of the down trend.



The 1 minute P&F chart has given a target of 0.858 (It is not active as yet, to be active the price needs to increase above 0.8475 without breaching 0.842) whilst this target means nothing at the minute and this is surmising on the basis of the bullish engulfing candle, the 38.2% retracement should be a good place to look for short positions.



As you can see on the 1 minute P&F chart there are three bearish targets from 0.8345 to 0.827, these are all active, so it will be quite risky opening a long position as it stands, if you do fancy ago at a long position, the stop would be below 0.841 which would negate the bullish engulfing candle on the 4 hourly chart.

Best wishes all,
Any opinions or errors noticed, please speak up!

ft

This ones testing the main trendline and horizontal support.
stops should be below previous days candle.
This is the second eur trade today so eur is struggling a bit today.
so extra careful needed.



dyor

Found the article mentioned earlier, supporting the theory of EURGBP Parity (citing a Rising 2006 Price Channel).

A couple of weeks old, but still worth a read:

tradingresearchpoint.co.uk/2013/01/18/eu...rity-on-the-horizon/

(including chart from article on here to give an idea of what's been discussed)

Jackozy wrote: Euro looking strong against everything now.

I read an article recently suggesting parity between EUR:GBP. Maybe a tad far fetched, but there was a good T/A article supporting the theory (still trying to find it!)

But! here's another take, which suggests that the Techincals favour GBP, citing the 0.87 as a strong barrier.

www.forexspace.com/forex-insights/2212/e...parity-with-sterling


(Not T/A but...) Former PM Harold Wilson did once say "It does not mean that the pound here in Britain, in your pocket or purse or in your bank, has been devalued." - before acting to devalue it further. I wonder if Sir Mervyn King will "sign off" in similar style to Trichet (the latter did it with a rate cut, the former could do it with another easing mechanism).