GBPUSD

Nice post Libero...

the set up is certainly bearish imvho....but any kind of brexit deal could see rally...but that will be sold into imvho... as the reality of brexit becomes clear!..

atb
trendfriend

Hi TF,

Quality post - as usual! and apologies for the late response...

It's hard to argue with that picture because I'm nowhere near good enough - it's been ages since I've traded to the short term, but glad to be back

As to what I think (for what its worth, but since you asked ) - Technically 1.22 is being tested as I type - but is that down to political bluster on here and in the US (where there's a lot of pressure to weaken the Dollar).

I don't know if "institutional" money is smart or dumb, but folks are selling Cable relief rallies I'm told. It doesn't look like it at present, but the day is young.

And yes, your chart not only has a H&S top, but, also the double top is clear to see (on the head). The pop beyond 1.22 is odd because in spite of Chancellor Merkel's flexible riposte, nothing has changed. We're heading towards a no-deal Brexit, which surely means the pound is poised for a 1.09-1.10 achieved perhaps by October?

(There's so many conflicting emotions right now - on the one hand, I hold USDs in my "savings", but on the other hand, the UK is home, my salary, taxes, charity et al are all held in GDP - one headache we can all do without!)

Keep up the excellent commentary!

Well I want to know what you think as well??

The q is will it hold 1.18/1.19 or will it go lower, and how low?

the daily here shows this is in this channel...
gbpusd- daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...kbmdrD2RfzJxVa8Ic%3D

the bulls.....
if it can get above 1.2180 > 1.2367 > 1.2730
i think watch the rsi for a breakout...otherwise 1.22 area will be tops....
above 1.2730 cancels the bear view imho.....
the bottom of the channel is just below 1.20 dropping a tad daily, so we may get one more move down....and rally again....then down??? wdik...

the bears (inc me )
gbpusd - weekly.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...BSAZacbRa+fO83Xoswg=

does that not look like a H&S top??
looks pretty much like it to me imvho.... and the neckline been busted....
This is finding support around the lows of 2016/17.....if that fails?
can you think of a good reason to be buying/holding sterling positions atm?

how low will it go??
i don't know tbh... $1 to £1 maybe??
it may depend on how it breaks below the key 1.19 level......large gap below 1.19....could be the momentum trigger for a a substantial drop imho....lets see...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend
by the way, deal or no deal...UK plc is still going down after brexit imvho....before it recovers...off course no deal will be worse...especially for sterling...

atb, wdik,d yor,
trendfriend

Trendfriend wrote: A relief rally may see this could hit just shy of 1.22....before another drop imvho....

atb,
trendfriend

Excellent Call TF!

It looks like it's heading there (currently at 1.2150)

Where or how far do you reckon this will drop post relief-rally? will it test the 1.18-1.19 handle from a few years ago?

Cable is a bit of a basket case right now due to the political uncertainty (brexit deal / no-deal etc...)

A relief rally may see this could hit just shy of 1.22....before another drop imvho....

atb,
trendfriend

Indeed TF,

But as flawed as my hourly chart was, Cable did make a decision on reaching the "point".

(see attached chart)

It's reaction to inflation (2.1 v 1.9) I believe; the bounce won't last I reckon.