Daily Market Briefing — 05 March 2026
China's lowest growth target since 1991 adds to global uncertainty, while US tariff increases loom this week.
Market Recap
UK and US indices closed lower on Wednesday as Iran conflict concerns weighed on sentiment despite a late-session rebound. Technology and semiconductor stocks provided some support during Wednesday's session, though European markets are expected to open mixed again on Thursday as geopolitical developments continue to unsettle traders.
Key Movers & Themes
- Geopolitical risk premium: Markets rebounded Wednesday but remain unsettled as experts suggest the Iran conflict could be more protracted than the White House expects. Oil tanker charter rates have nearly doubled in recent days and are up fivefold since the start of the year as Strait of Hormuz traffic grinds to a halt.
- China growth concerns: China set its lowest economic growth target since 1991, marking the first time the target has been lowered since it was cut to "around 5%" in 2023. This adds to global growth uncertainty.
- Tech sector resilience: Broadcom reported AI is not disrupting its software business, with infrastructure software sales growth accelerating. Okta beat earnings expectations as momentum in AI agents fuelled results. Apple launched its cheapest laptop yet, the $599 MacBook Neo.
Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today
- 09:30 GMT — UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Feb): Forecast 47.0 vs Previous 46.4
- 10:00 GMT — EU Retail Sales MoM (Jan): Forecast 0.3% vs Previous -0.5%
- 12:30 GMT — ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
- 13:30 GMT — US Initial Jobless Claims (Feb/28): Forecast 215K vs Previous 212K
- 13:30 GMT — US Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Prel (Q4): Forecast 1.9% vs Previous 4.9%
- 17:00 GMT — ECB President Lagarde Speech
Technical Levels to Watch
| Instrument | Support | Resistance |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,710 / 6,650 | 6,945 / 7,000 |
| NAS100 | 24,320 / 24,000 | 25,290 / 25,500 |
| US30 | 47,625 / 47,000 | 49,480 / 49,815 |
Commodities & Currencies
| Instrument | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Oil | $77.21 | +$5.98 | +8.40% |
| Brent Oil | $83.78 | +$6.04 | +7.77% |
| Gold | $5,166.60 | -$127.80 | -2.41% |
| Silver | $82.53 | -$5.75 | -6.52% |
| Natural Gas | $2.980 | +$0.020 | +0.57% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3331 | -0.0160 | -1.19% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1609 | -0.0194 | -1.64% |
| USD/JPY | 157.03 | +1.17 | +0.75% |
| Bitcoin | $72,560.71 | +$6,822.61 | +10.38% |
Oil markets remain highly volatile with WTI and Brent both up over 7% as Strait of Hormuz traffic disruptions continue. Experts warn that if oil and gas prices remain elevated, it could make goods and services more expensive. Gold and silver have pulled back sharply as risk appetite returned during Wednesday's rebound, while Bitcoin surged over 10% as crypto's 24/7 platforms dominated trading when traditional markets closed during the Iran conflict. The dollar strengthened against sterling and the euro, with USD/JPY pushing higher toward 157.00.
Trading Outlook
Markets remain hostage to Middle East developments, with oil supply concerns and inflation risks dominating sentiment despite Wednesday's late rebound. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's warning that higher tariffs are "likely sometime this week" adds another layer of uncertainty, while the key risk catalyst is whether oil prices stabilise or continue climbing on supply disruption fears.