Daily Market Briefing — 31 March 2026

Market Recap

Monday delivered a split verdict as energy volatility continued to dominate. The Dow Jones squeezed out a 0.11% gain to close at 45,216.14, but the S&P 500 fell 0.39% to 6,343.72 — its third consecutive down session — while the Nasdaq dropped 0.78% to 22,953.38. Oil's wild swings set the tone: WTI crude jumped 3.05% to $102.68 while Brent surprisingly fell 5.14% to $106.98, reflecting conflicting reports on the Iran war's trajectory. Gold climbed 1.79% to $4,606.90 as haven demand persisted, while Bitcoin gained 2.58% to $67,658.88.

Key Movers & Themes

Trump Peace Signals Shift Sentiment: Oil prices reversed course in overnight trading after reports emerged that President Trump is willing to end military hostilities against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut. The Wall Street Journal report sent stock futures higher and pulled crude back from recent highs, though traders remain sceptical given the conflict's unpredictable nature. Markets have been rattled by rising energy prices and sticky inflation concerns, with the S&P 500 now down 7.4% since the Iran conflict began — worse than the median 6.1% decline during previous geopolitical shocks.

China Data Surprises to the Upside: China's official manufacturing gauge returned to growth in March, expanding at its sharpest pace in a year and snapping two months of declines. The better-than-expected data provided a rare bright spot, though Chinese suppliers warned of higher prices for Americans due to Strait of Hormuz disruptions. South Korea announced over $17 billion in additional budget measures to ease energy costs, highlighting the global scramble to manage the fallout — Seoul imports 94% of its energy needs and nearly 72% of its crude from the Middle East.

Corporate Moves & Sector Shifts: Sysco's stock tumbled after announcing a $29.1 billion cash-and-stock deal to buy Jetro Restaurant Depot, going all in on the cash-and-carry food-service business. Bill Ackman declared it's one of the best times in a long time to buy quality stocks, a bullish stance that contrasts sharply with current market jitters. Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel predicted an inflection point is days away, with plans to commit capital if the S&P 500 drops to a specific level during this week of maximum uncertainty.

The Big Question

Can markets trust Trump's peace signals, or is this another head-fake? Bulls point to overnight futures gains and oil's retreat as evidence that de-escalation hopes can stabilise sentiment. Bears counter that the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, supply chains are already disrupted, and inflation data due today could force central banks to stay hawkish despite growth concerns. The answer likely arrives in the next 48 hours.

Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today

• 09:00 GMT — Eurozone Flash Inflation (March): Forecast 2.7% YoY vs 1.9% prior. A sharp jump that could complicate ECB policy and weigh on European equities if confirmed.
• 14:00 GMT — US JOLTs Job Openings (February): Expected 6.87 million vs 6.946 million prior. A cooling labour market would support rate cut hopes, but energy-driven inflation may override that narrative.
• 14:00 GMT — US Consumer Confidence (March): Forecast 88 vs 91.2 prior. Rising gas prices are already hitting drive-thru traffic and retail spending — watch for further weakness here.
• 06:00 GMT — UK Nationwide Housing Prices (March): Forecast 0.6% MoM vs 0.3% prior. A resilient housing market despite broader economic uncertainty.
• 06:45 GMT — France Preliminary Inflation (March): Forecast 1.6% YoY vs 0.9% prior, signalling energy price pass-through is accelerating across Europe.

Technical Levels to Watch

The 6,320 level on the S&P 500 is critical — it marks the recent low and sits just above the 6,260 five-day floor. A clean break below opens the door to deeper losses, while a hold could spark a relief rally if inflation data cooperates.

Commodities & Currencies

The oil complex delivered whiplash action — WTI surged over 3% while Brent fell over 5%, a rare divergence reflecting conflicting war narratives and technical positioning. Precious metals caught a strong bid as haven flows intensified, with silver outpacing gold on industrial demand hopes tied to China's manufacturing rebound. Sterling's 1.60% drop against the dollar was the sharpest move in the FX space, driven by UK current account data showing an £18.4 billion deficit in Q4.

Trading Outlook

Neutral with a bearish tilt until inflation data clears. The 6,320 support on the S&P 500 is the line in the sand — lose it and we're testing 6,260, then potentially 6,200. Eurozone CPI at 09:00 GMT is the first flashpoint, followed by US consumer confidence and JOLTs at 14:00 GMT. If inflation surprises higher and confidence drops, expect another leg down. The one catalyst that flips this bullish? A credible Iran ceasefire announcement with Hormuz reopening timelines. Until then, trade defensively and watch oil like a hawk.