Daily Market Briefing — 31 July 2026

Market Recap

Thursday's session belonged to the bulls, particularly in US tech. The NASDAQ 100's 3.36% rally to 28,106.35 marked a decisive reversal after recent volatility, while the S&P 500 climbed 1.66% to 7,437.63. The Dow Jones added 1.19% to close at 52,208.06. The session's narrative was clear: risk appetite returned as traders digested Big Tech earnings and shrugged off geopolitical concerns. South Korean chip stocks provided an early signal, with SK Hynix surging 25% and Samsung soaring over 20% in Seoul trading, tracking the US tech rally.

Key Movers & Themes

Big Tech Earnings Drive Sentiment — Amazon lifted markets after hiking its 2026 capex to $220 billion due to higher memory costs, with AWS sales expanding 37% year over year, crushing analyst expectations for 31% growth. Apple, however, warned of future supply constraints for Mac, iPhone, and iPad products, sending shares lower despite a sales beat in Tim Cook's final report as CEO. The company's hybrid AI strategy emerged as a focal point, with Cook positioning it as a competitive weapon and confirming plans to charge for AI services through iCloud.

AI Trade Volatility Peaks — The implosion of Leopold Aschenbrenner's hedge fund sent shockwaves through Wall Street, with the AI wunderkind forced to unwind all public stock positions after steep losses. Paradoxically, the fund's collapse has traders betting the bottom is in for the AI trade. Meta's stock fell hard on Thursday as AI spending concerns mounted — investors want proof the company can make serious money beyond advertising as capex ramps higher.

Oil Eases on Hormuz Traffic Recovery — WTI crude fell 2.56% to $81.45, while Brent dropped 2.28% to $87.00 as oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz recovered following US-Iran strikes earlier this week. The easing of supply concerns tempered the war premium that had pushed prices higher. The Bank of Japan held rates at 1% on Friday morning, warning that core inflation could exceed its 2% target, keeping speculation alive about faster rate hikes ahead.

Chart of the Day

Microsoft's technical setup demands attention after Thursday's 15.51% surge to $451.10. The stock has broken decisively above its 50-day EMA at $396.58 and now trades well above all major moving averages. The classic pivot point sits at $447.41, with immediate resistance at R1 ($462.38) and R2 ($473.66). Camarilla levels show R3 at $458.32 as the key intraday breakout level. RSI at 71.8 signals overbought conditions, but the bullish MACD crossover above the signal line suggests momentum remains intact. The question: can MSFT hold above $450 into month-end, or does profit-taking kick in at these elevated levels?

Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today

• 09:00 GMT — Eurozone Inflation Rate YoY Flash (Jul) — Forecast 2.9% vs 2.8% prior. This is the headline event. A hotter-than-expected print could reignite ECB tightening speculation and pressure European equities.
• 09:00 GMT — Eurozone Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash (Jul) — Forecast 2.4% vs 2.4% prior. Core inflation matters more for policy — any upside surprise here carries weight.
• 12:30 GMT — US Employment Cost Index QoQ (Q2) — Forecast 0.8% vs 0.9% prior. Fed officials watch this closely for wage pressure signals.
• 13:45 GMT — Chicago PMI (Jul) — Forecast 56 vs 56.7 prior. A regional manufacturing gauge that can move markets if it misses badly.
• 14:00 GMT — Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Jul) — Forecast 54 vs 49.5 prior. A sharp revision either way could shift rate expectations.

Technical Levels to Watch

RSI readings show 2 stocks overbought (REGN at 74.5, PYPL at 74.4) and none oversold. MACD signals are evenly split with 9 bullish crossovers versus 11 bearish. For Dow constituents, just 2 stocks show bullish EMA alignment against 8 bearish and 10 mixed — a more cautious picture. Microsoft's $462 resistance at R1 is the key level to watch today, while Meta's support at $529 (S1) could determine whether yesterday's weakness extends.

Commodities & Currencies

Oil's retreat dominated commodities, with WTI and Brent both down over 2% as Strait of Hormuz traffic normalised following this week's US-Iran tensions. Precious metals moved higher, with silver outpacing gold at +2.35% versus +0.82%, suggesting risk appetite is returning. Sterling and the euro both strengthened against the dollar, with cable up 0.70% to 1.3444 and EUR/USD gaining 1.01% to 1.1510. The yen strengthened 1.66% following the BOJ's rate hold and inflation warning.

Trading Outlook

Bias is cautiously bullish into the weekend, but eurozone inflation at 09:00 GMT is the swing factor. A hot print could reverse yesterday's tech rally as rate fears resurface. Watch the NASDAQ 100's 28,106 level — holding above it keeps momentum alive, while a break below 27,500 would signal profit-taking has begun in earnest. Corporate insiders haven't been this bearish in over 20 years according to recent data, so treat this rally with respect but not conviction. Manage risk accordingly.