Daily Market Briefing — 29 May 2026

Market Recap

Thursday's session delivered a paradox: US equities hit fresh all-time highs even as oil tumbled on Iran deal speculation. The S&P 500 rose 0.58% to 7,563.63, the NASDAQ 100 climbed 0.84% to 30,223.89, and the Dow Jones edged up 0.05% to 50,668.97. Tech led the charge — Dell shares soared on a 757% surge in AI-server revenue, while Samsung rallied 6% in Asia after shipping next-generation HBM4E memory chip samples.

Key Movers & Themes

AI Infrastructure Boom Continues: Dell Technologies delivered a blowout quarter, with AI-server revenue up 757% and profit beating expectations by the widest margin in five years. Nvidia is pouring billions into photonics technology, a more efficient alternative to electricity-based data transfer that could reshape the AI hardware landscape. Samsung's HBM4E chip shipments signal the next wave of memory upgrades for AI workloads. The theme is clear: infrastructure spending isn't slowing.

Oil Volatility on Iran Headlines: WTI crude plunged 6.31% to $87.97 on Thursday, the sharpest one-day drop in weeks, as reports emerged that Trump is mulling a two-month pause deal with Iran. But overnight missile launches from Iran have reintroduced uncertainty. Brent fell 1.96% to $91.87. Fed officials warned that energy inflation has been more persistent than expected, with Chicago Fed President Goolsbee noting the labor market is in decent shape but inflation remains the priority.

Blue Origin Setback: Jeff Bezos' rocket maker suffered a major blow as its New Glenn rocket exploded on the Florida launch pad during a ground test. The incident underscores the high-risk, high-reward nature of the commercial space race, though it's unlikely to dent broader market sentiment.

The Big Question

The answer likely hinges on whether oil stabilises or resumes its slide.

Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today

• 12:00 GMT — Germany Inflation Rate YoY Prel (May): Forecast 2.9%, previous 2.9%. A hotter-than-expected print could strengthen ECB hawks, tightening financial conditions further. Market expectations for rate hikes are already contributing to tighter lending conditions, effectively doing the ECB's job for it.
• 06:45 GMT — France Inflation Rate YoY Prel (May): Forecast 2.5%, previous 2.2%. French CPI has been more volatile than German data; a surprise here could move EUR/USD.
• 13:45 GMT — Chicago PMI (May): Forecast 50.5, previous 49.2. A return to expansion territory would support the soft-landing narrative, though manufacturing has been the weakest link in US data.
• 08:20 GMT — BoE Governor Bailey Speech: Any hints on the June rate decision will move gilts and sterling.
• 12:30 GMT — US Goods Trade Balance Adv (April): Forecast -$86.5bn, previous -$87.45bn. A modest improvement, but trade data has been distorted by tariff-related front-loading.

Technical Levels to Watch

On the Dow, Apple's RSI at 79.8 and Cisco at 74.2 flag overbought conditions, while JPM's bearish MACD and position below all EMAs makes it a laggard to watch. Goldman Sachs holding above 1,000 is a key psychological level for financials.

Commodities & Currencies

Natural gas stole the show with a 13.89% surge to $3.30, driven by storage concerns and weather forecasts. Gold added 0.84% to $4,537.10 as geopolitical risk offset dollar strength. The real story is oil: WTI's 6.31% plunge reflects Iran deal optimism, but overnight missile launches suggest traders may have front-run the headline. Sterling slipped 0.32% to 1.3439 ahead of Bailey's speech, while EUR/USD held flat at 1.1646 as markets await eurozone inflation prints.

Trading Outlook

Neutral to cautiously bullish, but with a hair-trigger on geopolitical headlines. The catalyst that flips sentiment? A confirmed Iran deal would likely send oil sub-$85 and reignite risk appetite; escalation pushes crude back toward $95 and pressures equities. Watch the German inflation print at noon — a hot number tightens financial conditions further and could weigh on European bourses into the close.