Daily Market Briefing — 29 July 2026

Market Recap

US markets delivered a split verdict on Tuesday. The Dow Jones climbed 2.00% to 52,747.32, notching its third consecutive winning session, while the S&P 500 edged up just 0.28% to 7,428.78. The Nasdaq 100 bore the brunt of the tech sell-off, shedding 2.43% to 27,763.13 as semiconductor stocks extended their brutal week. Asian markets amplified the pain overnight — South Korea's KOSPI plunged 8% and SoftBank tumbled 10% as AI-related plays took a hammering. SK Hynix shares tanked despite exponential earnings growth that failed to satisfy lofty expectations.

Key Movers & Themes

Geopolitical Risk Reignites: Iran's ballistic missile attack on U.S. forces in the Middle East sent oil markets into a tailspin, with WTI jumping 3.55% to $82.07 and Brent climbing 3.63% to $87.14. All missiles were intercepted, but the escalation after a brief pause in U.S.-Iran strikes has traders pricing in supply risk. Energy stocks rallied hard in London despite broader global weakness.

Chip Wreck Deepens: The semiconductor collapse shows no signs of abating. Micron fell 8.85% to $820.50, Marvell dropped 7.77% to $174.50, and Lam Research slid 7.54% to $269.60. Leveraged ETFs tied to SK Hynix got hammered as the chip darling's results disappointed. Investors are increasingly worried about China's domestic chip supply and the sustainability of AI spending after Alphabet's free cash flow turned negative. Microsoft short interest has hit a decade high ahead of its Q2 earnings, with bearish investors holding positions despite the report looming.

Big Tech Under Scrutiny: Amazon, Meta and Microsoft face sceptical investors this week after Google's report sparked a broader sell-off in mega-cap tech. The Nasdaq-100 is now on the edge of correction territory, just weeks after driving major indices to record highs. The AI spending binge is draining free cash flow, and bond markets are taking notice. Seagate provided a rare bright spot, with earnings topping expectations and the stock rallying after hours.

The Big Question

Will the Fed cut today despite oil spiking above $82? The consensus expects rates to hold at 3.75%, but the geopolitical backdrop complicates the picture. Hawks will point to energy-driven inflation risk and a resilient labour market. Doves counter that the chip sector's collapse and weakening global growth justify easing. The 18:30 GMT press conference will be critical — any dovish tilt could lift equities, but a hawkish hold risks extending the tech rout.

Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today

• 18:00 GMT — Fed Interest Rate Decision (US): Forecast 3.75%, Previous 3.75%. The headline event. Markets expect no change, but the statement and forward guidance matter more than the decision itself.
• 18:30 GMT — Fed Press Conference (US): Powell's tone on inflation, growth and the path ahead will drive volatility into the close.
• 08:30 GMT — Mortgage Approvals (UK): Forecast 57.1k, Previous 56.21k. A modest uptick expected, but housing data has been soft.
• 14:30 GMT — EIA Crude Oil Stocks (US): Forecast -2.5M barrels, Previous +2.011M. With oil spiking on geopolitics, inventory data could amplify moves.

Technical Levels to Watch

The 440 level on AMD is doing the heavy lifting as support after Tuesday's 8.15% drubbing, while TSLA's RSI at 27.0 signals oversold conditions — the first potential bounce candidate if sentiment stabilises. Breadth remains weak: just 2 of 20 Dow stocks show bullish EMA alignment (price above EMA20 above EMA50), while 8 are in full bearish mode. MACD signals are split 8 bullish to 12 bearish, reflecting the tug-of-war between resilient mega-caps and collapsing semis. PayPal's RSI at 78.6 flags overbought risk after its 4.17% rally.

Commodities & Currencies

Oil's surge on Iran tensions dominated the commodity complex, with both WTI and Brent posting their strongest daily gains in weeks. Natural gas bucked the trend, plunging 6.03% to $2.70 on weak demand forecasts. Gold dipped marginally despite geopolitical risk, while the dollar firmed against sterling and the euro. Cable's 0.56% slide to 1.3300 reflects pre-Fed positioning and UK fiscal concerns after a think tank warned PM Burnham has no scope to increase borrowing.

Trading Outlook

Neutral to bearish into the Fed decision. The Nasdaq-100's 27,763 close puts it within striking distance of correction territory — a break below 27,450 would confirm. Watch the 18:30 GMT press conference closely: any hawkish surprise could accelerate the tech sell-off, while a dovish tilt might spark a relief rally. The key risk today isn't the rate decision itself — it's whether Powell acknowledges the chip wreck or dismisses it as sector rotation. Manage size ahead of 18:00 GMT.