Daily Market Briefing — 28 October 2026

Market Recap

Tuesday belonged to the chip bulls. The Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.29% to 29,651.44 and the S&P 500 added 0.60% to 7,722.60, while the Dow barely moved, up 0.03% at 52,377.57. That divergence tells the story: semiconductors did the heavy lifting while the rest of the tape lagged. Futures are mixed this morning as traders square up ahead of the Fed decision and a run of Big Tech earnings, and a CNBC survey shows 93% of respondents expect the Fed to hold rates this week.

Key Movers & Themes

Chips lead, retail buys the dip. AMD jumped 5.45% to $560.26 and Broadcom gained 4.00% to $342.33, with Texas Instruments up 3.62%. Robinhood's CFO said retail traders were buying chip stocks they had researched, even as the platform got burned in crypto. Overnight, SK Hynix surged 11% after a record quarterly profit.

AI trade: relief or bubble warning? AI names such as CoreWeave rose as Anthropic's IPO filing restored confidence in sustained spending. Not everyone is convinced, though. MarketWatch notes the AI trade carried the market in September but has been under pressure in October, and one prominent Silicon Valley cheerleader has just handed bubble-watchers fresh ammunition.

Oil and the Middle East. Oil prices rose again as Houthi attacks on a Saudi Arabian refinery stoked supply fears, with investors weighing a prolonged conflict. WTI closed at $101.68. Trump said the Iran war will end when he wants it to, as reported costs balloon to $47 billion, and US consumers face the most expensive year for gas prices on record just ahead of next week's midterms.

The Big Question

Is the chip rally broad enough to hold? Bulls point to record earnings from SK Hynix and a rebound in AI spending sentiment. Bears note the Dow's flat session and Big Tech lagging the wider market in October. Today's earnings and the Fed press conference may settle the argument.

Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today

• 07:00 GMT, Germany: GfK Consumer Confidence (Nov). Actual -30.8 vs forecast -30.9, previous -30.6.
• 12:30 GMT, UK: Autumn Budget 2026, with Chancellor John Healey setting out tax plans. Minimum wage rises and cost-of-living measures are expected.
• 14:30 GMT, US: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Oct/23). Forecast +0.8 vs previous -3.061, which matters with oil elevated.
• 18:00 GMT, US: Fed Interest Rate Decision. Forecast 4% vs previous 4%, alongside the FOMC Statement.
• 18:30 GMT, US: Fed Press Conference. This is the one that matters most: a hold is priced, so tone on future hikes will drive the reaction.

Technical Levels to Watch

NVDA's pivot at 217.55 and S1 at 215.92 are the levels to watch among the chip bellwethers, while META sits in a weak position with RSI at 32.0 and all EMAs overhead. Breadth is lukewarm: 11 of 20 Nasdaq 100 stocks scanned are bullish on EMAs against 7 bearish, and 9 of 20 Dow names are bullish against 6 bearish. No Nasdaq stocks are overbought, though TXN is the lone Dow name at RSI 70.0. MACD leans bearish with 12 of 20 Nasdaq names on bearish crossovers, so rallies still need confirmation.

Commodities & Currencies

Natural gas was the standout, jumping 16.25% to $3.07 and printing a fresh five-day high. The dollar firmed broadly, with GBP/USD slipping 0.87% to 1.3280 and EUR/USD down 1.03% to 1.1119, both near five-day lows. Gold gave back 0.78%, while the WTI-Brent split (WTI up, Brent down) is worth watching as Middle East supply fears feed through.

Trading Outlook

Bias is cautiously bullish for US equities while chips hold their gains, but it is a conditional call. A hawkish tone from the Fed press conference at 18:30 GMT, with rate hikes reportedly coming later even if not this week, is the one catalyst that could flip it. Keep size sensible into the Budget at 12:30 GMT and the Fed decision, and watch NVDA's 215.92 and the S&P 500's recent five-day low near 7,612 as the lines in the sand.