Daily Market Briefing — 28 May 2026

Market Recap

Wednesday's session was a study in hesitation. Energy stocks caught a bid as oil prices jumped, but the broader market lacked conviction ahead of today's GDP revision and PCE inflation print. The Fed's Kashkari warned that persistently high inflation risks becoming embedded in consumer expectations, potentially forcing tougher policy action later — a reminder that the inflation fight takes priority even as the labor market remains in decent shape.

Key Movers & Themes

Iran Tensions Reignite Energy Complex: Oil jumped after the US carried out new strikes in Iran overnight, with Kuwait activating air defenses against missile and drone threats. WTI crude surged 3.28% to $91.59, while Brent fell 4.58% to $95.02 in a volatile session. The strikes come despite ongoing peace talks between Tehran and Washington, renewing concerns over commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Fed officials noted that energy inflation has been more persistent than expected, even as recent peace deal hopes had briefly pulled prices lower.

Tech Earnings Paint Mixed Picture: Snowflake's stock surged nearly 40% after an earnings beat and a $6 billion commitment to expand collaboration with Amazon's AWS, with AI acceleration driving record product-revenue growth. Marvell fell despite exceptional AI demand driving a stronger growth outlook, while Salesforce shares dipped on soft revenue guidance as AI disruption concerns linger. Micron investors are celebrating the stock's best monthly performance since 1987, though analysts still see it as a value play.

Precious Metals Under Pressure: Silver slipped 1.57% to $73.42 as UBS warned that last year's 140% rally is deterring buyers and elevated price levels are beginning to weigh on demand. Gold edged down 0.58% to $4,421.80 as traders await today's PCE inflation data for clues on Fed policy.

The Big Question

Can the Fed pivot with oil back above $90? Hawks point to persistently high energy inflation and Kashkari's warning about embedded expectations — arguing that rate cuts remain off the table. Doves counter that the labor market is softening and today's GDP revision could show weaker growth than expected, giving the Fed room to ease if inflation cools. The answer likely arrives at 12:30 GMT when the Core PCE Price Index prints.

Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today

• 12:30 GMT — US GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est (Q1): Forecast 2% vs previous 0.5%. A significant upward revision that could cement the Fed's hawkish stance.
• 12:30 GMT — US Core PCE Price Index MoM (Apr): Forecast 0.3% vs previous 0.3%. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge — any upside surprise kills rate cut hopes.
• 12:30 GMT — US Durable Goods Orders MoM (Apr): Forecast 3.5% vs previous 0.8%. A strong print would signal resilient manufacturing demand despite higher rates.
• 12:30 GMT — US Personal Spending MoM (Apr): Forecast 0.5% vs previous 0.9%. Watch for signs that consumers are pulling back as energy costs bite.
• 11:30 GMT — ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: Lagarde speaks at 07:20 GMT — any dovish signals could support European equities.

The GDP and PCE double-header at 12:30 GMT is the main event — expect volatility across all asset classes.

Technical Levels to Watch

Apple's RSI at 78.9 signals overbought conditions, with 308 support critical if profit-taking accelerates. Dow breadth is stronger with 12 stocks showing bullish MACD crossovers versus 8 bearish, but no clear directional edge. Energy names like SHEL and BP remain weak despite oil's jump, suggesting traders doubt the rally's sustainability.

Commodities & Currencies

WTI's 3.28% surge reflects renewed geopolitical risk premium after overnight strikes in Iran, though Brent's 4.58% drop suggests technical factors or contract rollovers at play. Natural gas jumped 5.64% on seasonal demand expectations. Bitcoin fell 3.92% as risk appetite waned ahead of today's macro data deluge. The dollar strengthened against sterling and the euro as traders positioned for a hawkish GDP/PCE combination.

Trading Outlook

Neutral to cautiously bearish into the 12:30 GMT data releases. If Core PCE comes in hot or GDP beats significantly, expect a hawkish repricing that pressures equities and lifts the dollar. Manage risk tightly around the data — today's volatility will be sharp and unforgiving.