Daily Market Briefing — 28 August 2026

Market Recap

Thursday's session belonged to the tech bulls. The Nasdaq 100 jumped 1.43% to close at 29,641.56, powered by blockbuster earnings from CrowdStrike and Salesforce. The S&P 500 gained 0.72% to 7,730.99, while the Dow Jones edged up just 0.20% to 53,569.44 as cyclicals lagged. The divergence tells the story: US markets are betting on AI-driven growth, while London grapples with commodity headwinds and geopolitical uncertainty.

Key Movers & Themes

Cybersecurity Surge: CrowdStrike's stock jumped 20.50% after record-breaking earnings, with Wall Street banks including Jefferies raising price targets. The cybersecurity firm's results showed resilience despite broader tech volatility, and a federal judge ruled late Thursday that the Trump administration illegally retaliated against AI firm Anthropic by blacklisting it earlier this year — a decision that could have ripple effects across the defence tech sector.

Software Revival: Salesforce rocketed 20% higher, giving the entire software sector a major lift. The earnings demonstrated that AI isn't killing traditional software and that operators of major AI models are willing to strike partnerships with legacy vendors. Synopsys also surged 13.39%, while Palo Alto Networks added 12.83%, reinforcing the theme that enterprise software remains a growth story.

Semiconductor Wobble: Despite the tech rally, chip stocks showed mixed signals. Marvell boosted its forecasts but the stock slipped 1.49% as analysts questioned how much upside the recently announced Google deal really offers. One analyst now believes Nvidia could hit $1 trillion in annual revenue, but broader semiconductor names like Applied Materials and Lam Research traded flat to slightly higher, suggesting caution remains.

The Big Question

Will Warsh signal a hawkish shift at Jackson Hole? Cleveland Fed President Hammack said on Thursday that "now is the time to act" on raising interest rates, citing inflation strains on household budgets. That's a sharp contrast to market expectations for rate cuts later this year. If Warsh echoes that hawkish tone at 14:00 GMT today, the recent equity rally could face a reality check. Bulls argue inflation is cooling and growth data supports easing; hawks point to persistent core price pressures and tight labour markets. The answer could determine whether the S&P 500 holds above 7,700 or tests support.

Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today

• 14:00 GMT — Fed Chair Warsh Speech (US): The headline event. Any hints on the September rate path will move markets immediately. Expect volatility in FX and bonds.
• 14:00 GMT — Non Farm Payrolls Annual Revision Prel (US): Previous reading showed a -911,000 revision. If the adjustment is larger, it could shift rate expectations.
• 14:00 GMT — Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (US): Forecast 51.0 vs previous 55.2. A miss would add to recession fears; a beat could support risk assets.
• 09:00 GMT — Economic Sentiment (EU): Forecast 97.5 vs previous 96.9. Watch for any signs of European growth stabilisation.
• 06:45 GMT — France Inflation Rate YoY Prel (Aug): Previous 2.1%. ECB watchers will scrutinise this for clues on eurozone price trends.

Technical Levels to Watch

The 500 level on Microsoft is doing the heavy lifting as resistance — a break above 510.90 would confirm continuation. Two stocks (SNPS, MSFT) are overbought on RSI above 70, suggesting near-term consolidation risk.

Commodities & Currencies

Oil's retreat continues as Iran signalled the Strait of Hormuz could reopen if regional wars end, easing supply fears six months into the conflict. Natural gas spiked 4.82% on weather-driven demand forecasts. Silver outperformed gold with a 2.20% gain, suggesting industrial demand optimism. Sterling weakened 0.47% against the dollar ahead of UK data, while the yen softened as USD/JPY pushed back above 159.50.

Trading Outlook

Neutral to cautiously bullish, but Warsh holds the keys. The S&P 500's 7,730 close keeps it comfortably above the 7,638 five-day low, and the Nasdaq's 1.43% surge shows momentum remains intact. If Warsh sounds dovish or neutral, expect a push toward 7,800 on the S&P 500; if he echoes Hammack's hawkish tone, 7,650 support comes into play. Watch the 14:00 GMT window closely — volatility will spike, and stops should be tightened accordingly.