Daily Market Briefing — 26 October 2026

Market Recap

Friday's session was a story of divergence. The Dow Jones took the brunt of it, closing down 1.23% at 52,215.16, while the S&P 500 eased 0.52% to 7,623.68, sitting just above its five-day low of 7,612.07. The NAS100 was the outlier, closing flat at 28,957.53 as the tech-heavy index held its ground. Breadth was mixed: roughly half of the Nasdaq 100 names we track sit above their short-term EMAs, but 12 of 20 show bearish MACD readings. Weakness in AI-linked names and a heavy sell-off in T-Mobile (-7.71%) weighed on the blue chips. Nvidia slipped 0.59% to $210.96, and the AI trade is under scrutiny as investors question Nvidia's growing role as financier of the AI buildout.

Key Movers & Themes

Cybersecurity bucked the trend. CrowdStrike jumped 8.25% to $257.57 and Palo Alto Networks gained 7.22% to $380.55, with Fortinet adding 4.05%. All three sit above their 20, 50 and 200-day EMAs, making this one of the cleanest bullish pockets in the market.

Chips remain oversold. KLA (RSI 23.3), Lam Research (24.6) and Applied Materials (26.1) all sit in oversold territory and below every key EMA. Micron bounced 2.46% to $877.55 but is still below its 20 and 50-day averages, so a dead-cat bounce versus a genuine turn is the question.

Earnings are the next catalyst. Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and more report this week, part of 160 S&P 500 companies due to report at what is billed as a critical time for tech. Alphabet (RSI 31.3) and Meta (RSI 35.8) go in with bearish technical set-ups.

The Big Question

Is the AI trade cracked or just correcting? Bulls point to Microsoft and Apple holding above key EMAs, and to the oversold readings in semiconductors, which often precede relief rallies. Bears point to Nvidia's expanding financing role and the market hit to neoclouds, while Meta, Alphabet and Broadcom all sit below their short-term EMAs. This week's megacap earnings should settle the argument one way or the other.

Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today

• 09:00 GMT — Germany Ifo Business Climate (Oct): forecast 89.8, previous 89.9. The highest-impact release of the day, a gauge of European sentiment.
• 11:00 GMT — UK CBI Distributive Trades (Oct): forecast -47, previous -55.
• 12:30 GMT — US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Sep): previous -0.04.
• 14:30 GMT — US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct): previous 9.8.

Chancellor John Healey's Budget lands on 28 October, so expect UK headlines and sterling to stay in focus.

Technical Levels to Watch

The key level today is Nvidia's S1 at 209.48: lose it and the AI complex likely stays under pressure into earnings. Breadth is split, with 9 Nasdaq 100 names bullish on EMAs versus 8 bearish, and 8 bullish versus 7 bearish in the Dow group. Oversold RSI readings in the semiconductor equipment names suggest bounce potential, but MACD is bearish for 12 of 20 Nasdaq 100 names and 14 of 20 Dow names, so any rally lacks momentum confirmation.

Commodities & Currencies

Brent's 5.77% fall was the big commodity move, though at $109.99 crude is still historically elevated, and WTI held above $100. Silver's 6.04% slide to $53.95 took it to the bottom of its five-day range, while gold edged up 0.34% to $4,021.40. Sterling gained 0.50% against the dollar to 1.3374, and Bitcoin slipped below $80,010.

Trading Outlook

Our bias is cautiously neutral to bearish on US indices while the S&P 500 trades near its five-day low of 7,612.07. A clean break below that level would open further downside, while a push back above 7,700 would suggest dip buyers are returning. The catalyst that could flip the bias is this week's megacap earnings, so manage position size into the reports and respect your stops.