Daily Market Briefing — 24 April 2026

Market Recap

US markets slipped on Thursday as tech heavyweights dragged indices lower. The S&P 500 closed down 0.41% at 7,108.40, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.57% to 26,782.62 as IBM and Salesforce posted sharp declines. The Dow Jones shed 0.36% to 49,310.32. The session was shaped by rising oil prices and mounting concerns about market valuations after a senior Bank of England official warned that stock markets are too high and set to fall.

Key Movers & Themes

Tech Layoffs Accelerate: Meta announced plans to cut 10% of its workforce — approximately 8,000 employees — as the company ramps up AI investments. The cuts mark Meta's largest layoff since 2023. Microsoft also unveiled its first-ever voluntary employee buyout programme, targeting up to 7% of its US workforce at senior director level and below. The moves reflect a broader shift in tech spending priorities towards artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Oil Surges on Iran War Concerns: WTI crude jumped 3.15% to $95.89 while Brent climbed 3.35% to $105.32 as the Strait of Hormuz remains shut. Despite a three-week extension of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, markets remain on edge about supply disruptions. India and China are increasingly competing for shrinking Russian crude supplies as the Iran conflict drags on, adding further upward pressure on prices.

Prediction Market Scandal Deepens: A US soldier was arrested after allegedly winning $400,000 on Polymarket by betting on the removal of Venezuela's Maduro using classified information. Separately, France's weather forecast office filed a police complaint following suspicious bets on temperature readings at Charles de Gaulle Airport, which rose by several degrees in minutes. The incidents highlight growing concerns about insider trading on prediction platforms.

The Big Question

Are equity markets genuinely overvalued, as the Bank of England's deputy governor suggests? The warning is unusually forthright for a senior central bank figure and comes as the S&P 500 trades near recent highs despite geopolitical uncertainty and rising oil prices. Bulls argue earnings growth justifies current valuations and that AI investment will drive productivity gains. Bears point to stretched multiples, slowing consumer sentiment — Michigan's reading is forecast to drop to 47.6 from 53.3 — and the lagged impact of higher energy costs on margins. With oil above $95, the inflation-growth trade-off is back in focus.

Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today

• 06:00 GMT — UK Retail Sales (Mar): Actual 0.7% MoM vs 0.2% forecast, beating expectations after February's -0.6% decline. Year-on-year growth came in at 1.7% vs 1.3% forecast. A positive surprise for UK consumer spending.
• 08:00 GMT — Germany Ifo Business Climate (Apr): Forecast 85.5 vs 86.4 previous. Watch for any deterioration in German business sentiment amid higher energy costs.
• 06:45 GMT — France Consumer Confidence (Apr): Forecast 88 vs 89 previous. Another gauge of European consumer health.
• 14:00 GMT — US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Apr): Forecast 47.6 vs 53.3 previous. The headline event — a sharp drop would confirm weakening US consumer confidence and could pressure equities further.

The Michigan sentiment reading is the key release today. A worse-than-forecast print could trigger a risk-off move into the weekend, particularly with oil prices elevated and recession fears simmering.

Technical Levels to Watch

Dow breadth is more balanced: 11 bullish, 10 bearish, with three stocks overbought (CAT, UNH, AMZN).

Commodities & Currencies

The standout move is crude — both WTI and Brent posted their strongest daily gains in weeks as the Strait of Hormuz closure continues to choke supply. Silver's 3.84% drop stands out against gold's relative stability, suggesting industrial demand concerns are creeping in. Sterling and the euro both weakened against the dollar as US yields held firm, while the yen continues to slide towards 160.00 despite intervention warnings from Tokyo.

Trading Outlook

Neutral to bearish bias into the weekend. The combination of elevated oil, tech sector layoffs, and a senior BoE official warning on valuations creates a cautious backdrop. The 7,100 level on the S&P 500 is now critical support — a break below could trigger stops and accelerate selling into month-end. Watch 14:00 GMT for Michigan sentiment: a print below 47.0 would confirm consumer weakness and likely pressure risk assets. With geopolitical risks elevated and the Hormuz Strait still shut, risk management trumps conviction today.