Daily Market Briefing — 22 July 2026

Market Recap

US markets closed firmly higher on Tuesday, shaking off geopolitical jitters as chip stocks staged a powerful comeback. The NASDAQ 100 surged 1.93% to 29,155.18, driven by Micron's 12.17% rally and strong gains across semiconductor names. The S&P 500 rose 0.89% to 7,509.20, while the Dow Jones added 0.74% to 52,224.64. The session's narrative: traders are betting that chip overselling created a buying opportunity, even as Middle East tensions escalate and Trump's tariff plans loom over global supply chains.

Key Movers & Themes

Chip Stocks Roar Back: Micron led the charge with a 12.17% surge, while Marvell (+6.68%), Lam Research (+4.97%), and KLA Corp (+4.80%) all posted strong gains. The rebound came as analysts argued the recent sell-off presented a buying opportunity, with open-source AI models expected to drive memory demand. Super Micro surged 15% after disclosing unexpectedly doubled margins (15-17% range) following a SpaceX announcement and new order disclosure. Wistron shares jumped in Taiwan after opening its first U.S. facility in Fort Worth, Texas, to supply Nvidia.

Geopolitical Risk Premium: U.S. Central Command hit Iranian targets for an 11th straight night, with Secretary Rubio warning that Tehran's Hormuz threat risks global fallout. The escalation pushed WTI crude up 2.16% to $85.03 and Brent 2.97% to $91.87 on Tuesday. Energy stocks remain cheap even after their rally this month, according to analysts who see value beyond just the Iran conflict. Gold climbed 1.61% to $4,136.80 as safe-haven flows intensified.

Trump's Tariff Agenda: The administration plans steep tariffs on generic drugs starting in 2028 to spur U.S. production, adding to existing pressure on global supply chains. Trump's push for American-made AI chips is hitting TSMC's margins despite the Taiwan-based chipmaker announcing $200 billion in U.S. manufacturing investment since Trump returned to power in 2025. Nike announced it will cut off thousands of online distributors in China and restructure its digital footprint to stabilize pricing and branding.

The Big Question

Will UK inflation stay sticky despite energy VAT cuts? Today's CPI print (forecast 2.7% YoY vs 2.8% prior) arrives just as the Burnham government announces a VAT cut on household electricity bills from October, saving homes around £45 annually. Bulls argue the VAT cut and restored £2 bus fare cap will ease cost-of-living pressures and give the Bank of England room to cut rates. Bears point to surging oil prices and wage pressures keeping core inflation elevated (forecast 2.5% vs 2.6% prior). The data at 06:00 GMT will set the tone for sterling.

Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today

• 06:00 GMT — UK Inflation Rate YoY (Jun): Forecast 2.7% vs 2.8% prior. HIGH IMPORTANCE. First major economic test for the new government. A softer print could boost rate cut bets; a surprise uptick would pressure gilts and sterling.
• 06:00 GMT — UK Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun): Forecast 2.5% vs 2.6% prior. Watch for stickiness in services inflation — the BoE's key concern.
• 06:00 GMT — UK Inflation Rate MoM (Jun): Forecast 0.1% vs 0.2% prior. Sequential momentum matters for near-term rate expectations.
• 14:30 GMT — EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Jul 17): Forecast -1.5M vs -1.693M prior. With oil above $85 and Iran tensions escalating, inventory data could add volatility to energy markets.

Technical Levels to Watch

The 330 level on Apple is doing heavy lifting as near-term resistance, while Nvidia's 209 pivot resistance will test whether yesterday's chip rally has legs. Only one stock (PayPal) is overbought on RSI, while Synopsys sits oversold at 29.4. MACD signals are evenly split — 16 bullish crossovers vs 24 bearish across both indices, suggesting consolidation rather than conviction.

Commodities & Currencies

Oil's surge on Iran supply fears is the standout move — Brent's 2.97% jump to $91.87 reflects genuine concern about Hormuz Strait disruption. Gold's climb to $4,136.80 confirms safe-haven demand is alive, while silver's 2.01% gain suggests industrial metal buyers see value. Sterling's 1.18% drop to 1.3381 ahead of today's inflation data shows traders positioning cautiously — a softer CPI print could spark a sharp reversal. The dollar strengthened broadly, with USD/JPY pushing back above 163 as rate differentials reassert themselves.

Trading Outlook

Cautiously bullish into the UK inflation print, but geopolitical risk is the wildcard. Watch 06:00 GMT closely — volatility will spike on the data, and the first 30 minutes will set the tone for London's open at 08:00. Manage risk around the release; today's number matters more than yesterday's close.