Daily Market Briefing — 22 April 2026

Market Recap

US markets closed lower on Tuesday as Trump's ceasefire extension failed to ease concerns over Middle East tensions. The S&P 500 fell 0.63% to 7,064.01, while the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.42% to 26,479.47 and the Dow Jones slipped 0.59% to 49,149.38. Trump's announcement that the US will continue blockading Iran's ports until peace talks progress kept traders cautious, even as Vice President JD Vance's planned trip to Pakistan for negotiations was put on hold. Japan's Nikkei 225 bucked the trend overnight, rising to a record high as Asian markets digested the ceasefire news.

Key Movers & Themes

Oil Retreat on Ceasefire Extension: WTI crude tumbled 3.84% to $88.59 and Brent plunged 6.29% to $92.29 as Trump's ceasefire announcement triggered profit-taking from recent highs. The president's comments that Iran's government is "seriously fractured" offered some hope for de-escalation, but the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz keeps supply risks elevated. Airlines are already cutting flights as fuel costs surge, with travellers facing fewer routes and higher fares — an economic fallout that markets may be underestimating.

Tech and Finance Mixed: UnitedHealth Group surged 6.96% to $346.01, leading Dow gainers, while Merck tumbled 3.88% to $112.56 and Honeywell fell 3.27% to $222.22. Apple slipped 2.52% to $266.17 as markets digested news that Tim Cook's successor John Ternus must address the company's AI gap. SpaceX announced it obtained rights to buy AI coding startup Cursor for $60 billion later this year or pay $10 billion for their collaborative work, highlighting the continued frenzy around AI infrastructure.

The Big Question

Will UK inflation force the BoE to hold rates despite weakening growth? This morning's CPI print (forecast 3.3% YoY vs 3% prior) could determine whether the Bank of England has room to cut rates in May. Hawks will point to sticky core inflation at 3.2% and rising energy costs from the Iran conflict as reasons to stay restrictive. Doves counter that unemployment fell unexpectedly to 4.2% largely because fewer students are seeking work — a sign of weakening labour market participation rather than genuine strength. With oil prices now pulling back from recent peaks, a softer-than-expected inflation number could open the door for rate cut speculation.

Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today

• 06:00 GMT — UK Inflation Rate YoY (Mar): Forecast 3.3% vs 3% prior. This is the day's key release. A hotter print keeps BoE rate cuts off the table; a miss could spark dovish repricing.
• 06:00 GMT — UK Core Inflation Rate YoY (Mar): Forecast 3.2% vs 3.2% prior. Stickiness here would be more concerning than headline moves driven by energy.
• 14:30 GMT — EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Apr/17): Forecast -1.0M vs -0.913M prior. With oil pulling back sharply, inventory data will test whether the ceasefire has genuinely eased supply fears.
• 17:30 GMT — ECB President Lagarde Speech: Any comments on eurozone inflation or rate path will move EUR/USD, which has already slipped 0.46% to 1.1755.

Technical Levels to Watch

On the Dow, UnitedHealth's surge has pushed RSI to 79.6 (extreme overbought), while Amazon at 74.0 RSI also looks stretched.

Commodities & Currencies

Oil's sharp reversal dominated commodity markets, with Brent's 6.29% plunge marking its worst day in weeks as ceasefire hopes triggered profit-taking from recent war-premium highs. Gold rallied 1.88% to $4,786.60 and silver surged 2.81% to $78.56 as safe-haven flows rotated from energy into precious metals. Bitcoin jumped 2.79% to $77,991.99, continuing its recovery from last week's lows. Sterling slipped 0.36% to 1.3525 ahead of this morning's inflation data, while the euro fell 0.46% to 1.1755 as traders positioned for potential ECB commentary later today.

Trading Outlook

Neutral to bearish bias into the London open. European stocks are expected to open lower as traders weigh the ceasefire extension against the reality of a continued Hormuz blockade. UK inflation at 06:00 GMT is the catalyst that could flip sentiment: a miss opens the door for BoE rate cut speculation and a relief rally, while a beat above 3.5% would pressure UK equities and send gilt yields higher. Watch oil's reaction to the EIA inventory data at 14:30 GMT — if crude fails to hold $88, energy stocks face another leg down.