Daily Market Briefing — 15 October 2026

Market Recap

Wednesday was a day of two halves in tone if not in direction. Hotter-than-expected US inflation, with CPI rising 3.7% annually in September on higher motor fuel costs, set the tone, and tech paid the price. The NASDAQ 100 fell 2.02% to 29,950.82, the S&P 500 slipped 1.11% to 7,718.94, while the Dow Jones barely moved, down just 0.09% at 51,621.48. That gap tells its own story: this was a tech and AI-trade unwind, not a broad capitulation. S&P 500 futures are lower again this morning, and Asia has already felt the pain, with South Korea's Kospi sliding 7%.

Key Movers & Themes

The AI trade is splintering. Investors are asking whether steep inflation and higher borrowing costs could derail the AI buildout. CoreWeave's bonds fell to 81 cents on the dollar, yielding more than 15%, while MarketWatch flagged cooling revenue growth at Anthropic ahead of its IPO. Anthropic's Q3 revenue is reportedly $16.8 billion, so the debate is about trajectory rather than scale.

Chips bore the brunt. Micron lost 4.10%, Lam Research 4.71%, AMD 5.73% and Nvidia 3.16%. In Asia, SK Hynix plunged 10% as the global tech hardware sell-off deepened on Fed rate-hike fears and AI funding worries. One bright spot: TSMC posted a record profit for a sixth straight quarter, beating estimates on the AI boom.

Small caps unravel. Small-cap stocks have fallen 10% from a record high in just two months, a rapid reversal that underlines how fragile risk appetite has become.

The Big Question

Is this a healthy pullback or the start of something deeper? Bulls point to TSMC's record earnings and the fact that the Dow held firm, suggesting rotation rather than panic. Bears point to inflation at 3.7%, rate-hike chatter, and credit stress showing up in AI-linked bonds. Today's data should help settle it.

Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today

• 12:30 GMT, US — PPI MoM (Sep): forecast 0.5%, previous 0.4%. After Wednesday's CPI shock, a hot print here would reinforce the hawkish narrative. This is the one that matters most.
• 12:30 GMT, US — Retail Sales MoM (Sep): forecast 0.3%, previous 1.2%. A strong number adds to rate-hike fears.
• 12:30 GMT, US — Core PPI MoM (Sep): forecast 0.3%, previous 0.2%.
• 12:30 GMT, US — Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct): forecast 28.4, previous 37.8.
• 12:30 GMT, US — Initial Jobless Claims: forecast 200, previous 197.

Technical Levels to Watch

Nvidia's S1 at 218.63 is the level to watch today; a break would open S2 at 215.95. Breadth is deteriorating: across the Nasdaq 100 names scanned, 7 are bullish on EMAs against 3 bearish and 10 mixed, with 11 MACD bullish crossovers against 8 bearish. In the Dow group, 7 are bullish and 5 bearish, with Costco the only overbought reading at RSI 72.1. Semiconductors are the weak spot, with MU, AMAT, LRCX and KLAC all showing RSI in the 36-39 range and bearish MACD crossovers.

Commodities & Currencies

Silver was the standout loser, shedding 4.97% even as gold gained 1.30%, a sharp divergence between the two metals. Oil is slipping this morning as traders weigh attacks on ships passing through Hormuz against the International Energy Agency's latest monthly report. Bitcoin dropped 3.14% to $80,487, tracking the broader risk-off mood. Currencies were quiet, with GBP/USD barely changed at 1.3240.

Trading Outlook

Bias is cautiously bearish for tech while inflation fears and rate-hike chatter dominate. The catalyst that could flip it is a soft PPI print at 12:30 GMT, which would take some heat out of the rate narrative. Watch Nvidia's 218.63 S1 and the 29,861 five-day low on the NASDAQ 100; a break below that would signal further downside risk, so size positions accordingly into the data.