Daily Market Briefing — 15 July 2026

Market Recap

US markets closed mixed on Tuesday, with tech leading the charge while broader indices crept higher. The S&P 500 added 0.38% to 7,543.59, the NASDAQ 100 surged 1.10% to 29,586.29, and the Dow Jones barely budged at 52,508.27, up just 0.02%. The session was defined by two forces: easing inflation data — US CPI came in at 3.5% annually in June versus 3.8% expected — and a rally in semiconductor stocks after SK Hynix jumped 11% in Asia, reversing earlier losses. But the overnight escalation in US-Iran tensions threatens to unwind that calm, with WTI crude up 2.09% to $79.77 and Brent climbing 2.57% to $85.44 as traders price in supply disruption risk.

Key Movers & Themes

Geopolitical Risk Repriced Overnight: US forces struck Iranian missile sites and defence systems after President Trump declared the ceasefire over. Washington reinstated its naval blockade of Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices sharply higher. Brent crude is now within sight of $90, and analysts warn that $4 per gallon gasoline could return to US pumps, threatening the inflation relief that drove Tuesday's rally. Energy stocks are the obvious beneficiaries today, but the broader risk-off tone could weigh on equities.

Stripe and Advent Bid $53bn for PayPal: Payment processor Stripe and private equity firm Advent International have jointly offered $60.50 per share for PayPal Holdings, valuing the company at over $53 billion. PayPal closed Tuesday at $47.37, meaning the bid represents a 28% premium. The stock is likely to gap higher at the open, and the deal — if it closes — would mark one of the largest fintech acquisitions in history. PayPal has struggled with competition from newer platforms, and this bid suggests Stripe sees value in its established infrastructure.

IBM Craters 25% on Earnings Warning: IBM issued a second-quarter earnings warning and the stock suffered its worst day on record, plunging 25%. The CEO blamed weakness in software and infrastructure as clients shifted spending toward hardware purchases, particularly memory chips ahead of anticipated price hikes. The move highlights a broader rotation within tech: AI infrastructure spending is cannibalising traditional software budgets, and legacy players are feeling the squeeze.

Sector Spotlight

Semiconductors Rally, But for How Long? Chip stocks rebounded sharply on Tuesday after a brutal start to the week. SK Hynix led Asian tech stocks with an 11% gain, and US names followed suit — NVIDIA closed up 4.06% at $211.80, Applied Materials gained 3.53% to $595.70, and Micron added 4.92% to $983.10. The catalyst? ASML raised its sales forecast for the second time this year, citing relentless demand for AI chip production equipment. But the rally sits on shaky ground. Memory prices are rising, clients are front-loading orders, and IBM's warning shows that not everyone is winning in this cycle. Watch whether semis can hold these gains if geopolitical risk escalates further — historically, they're sensitive to supply chain disruption fears.

Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today

• 12:30 GMT — US PPI MoM (Jun): Forecast 0.0% vs 1.1% prior. Producer prices are expected to cool sharply after June's spike. A hotter-than-expected print would reignite inflation fears, especially with oil surging overnight.
• 14:00 GMT — Fed Chair Warsh Testimony: Markets will parse every word for clues on the Fed's rate path. With CPI cooling but geopolitical risks rising, Warsh faces a delicate balancing act.
• 12:30 GMT — NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jul): Forecast 8.8 vs 5.7 prior. A gauge of regional manufacturing activity — any surprise could move the dollar.
• 14:30 GMT — EIA Crude Oil Stocks: Forecast -1.8M barrels. With oil spiking on Iran tensions, inventory data takes on added significance. A larger-than-expected draw would add fuel to the rally.

Technical Levels to Watch

In the US, watch NVIDIA's 209 pivot as the line in the sand for the chip rally. MACD signals show 7 bullish crossovers versus 13 bearish, suggesting momentum is fragile. One stock is overbought (MELI at RSI 70.5), but none are oversold — this market isn't washed out yet.

Commodities & Currencies

Oil is the story: Brent up 2.57% and WTI up 2.09% as the US naval blockade of Iranian ports raises supply disruption fears. Gold slipped 0.63% despite geopolitical risk, suggesting traders are rotating into energy rather than safe havens. Bitcoin surged 4.25% to $64,885.77, continuing its recent recovery. Sterling edged higher to 1.3412, but the move is modest — cable is waiting for clearer signals from the BoE.

Trading Outlook

Neutral to bearish near-term. The overnight Iran escalation is a game-changer — if oil pushes toward $90, the inflation relief trade that drove Tuesday's gains evaporates. The catalyst that flips this? A de-escalation in the Middle East or a dovish surprise from Fed Chair Warsh at 14:00 GMT. Until then, energy is the only clear buy, and risk management is paramount. If PPI comes in hot at 12:30 GMT, expect a sharp reversal in equities.