Daily Market Briefing — 15 April 2026

Market Recap

US markets rallied on Tuesday as hopes for a diplomatic off-ramp in the Middle East overshadowed the reality of a closed Strait of Hormuz. The S&P 500 climbed 1.18% to 6,967, now sitting less than 1% from its all-time high set on 28 January. The Nasdaq 100 outperformed with a 1.81% gain to 25,842, while the Dow Jones added 0.66% to 48,536. The White House signalled ongoing negotiations with Tehran, fuelling optimism that the blockade could be lifted without further escalation.

Key Movers & Themes

Energy Sector Whipsaw: WTI crude plunged 7.62% to $91.53 while Brent fell 3.81% to $95.57 as peace talk hopes outweighed supply concerns. US Treasury Secretary Bessent told the BBC that a 'small bit of economic pain' was worth eliminating the Iranian threat, suggesting Washington remains committed to pressure despite diplomatic overtures.

Tech Giants Lead the Charge: Amazon surged 3.79% and Nvidia extended its winning streak to 10 days with a 3.78% gain, as investors piled back into AI plays. ASML beat first-quarter expectations and raised its 2026 guidance on strong semiconductor demand, reinforcing the AI infrastructure narrative. Meta announced a sweeping deal with Broadcom to deploy 1 gigawatt of custom chips, while Samsung SDS shares jumped 20% on an $820 million KKR partnership.

Goldman Sachs rose 2.11% to $909.63 while JPMorgan dipped 0.82% to $311.12 despite remaining in a bullish technical setup.

The Big Question

Can peace talks deliver, or is this just another false dawn? Bulls point to the White House's clear signalling of a diplomatic solution and falling oil prices as evidence that de-escalation is underway. Bears counter that the Hormuz blockade remains 'fully implemented' and the US is now pressuring China and India — two of its most consequential relationships in Asia — risking broader economic fallout. The IMF warned that the UK faces the biggest growth hit of any major economy from the Iran conflict, cutting its forecast and cautioning the war could throw the global economy 'off course'. Until crude settles and shipping lanes reopen, volatility remains the base case.

Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today

• 12:30 GMT — US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Apr): Forecast -0.5 vs previous -0.2. A deeper contraction would signal manufacturing weakness persisting into Q2.
• 12:30 GMT — US Import/Export Prices (Mar): Import prices forecast +2.0% MoM (prev +1.3%), export prices +1.5% (prev +1.5%). Rising import costs could reignite inflation concerns.
• 14:00 GMT — NAHB Housing Market Index (Apr): Forecast 37 vs previous 38. Housing sentiment remains depressed amid elevated mortgage rates.
• 18:00 GMT — BoE Governor Bailey Speech: Any hints on the rate path amid rising oil prices will move sterling and gilts.
• 19:30 GMT — ECB President Lagarde Speech: Watch for commentary on eurozone growth risks from the Middle East conflict.

Technical Levels to Watch

Commodities & Currencies

The standout move was crude's collapse — WTI fell back below $100 for the first time in weeks as diplomatic hopes trumped supply fears. Silver surged nearly 5% to $79.28, outperforming gold's modest 0.32% gain, as some central banks reportedly began selling bullion to raise cash amid war-driven pressures. Sterling rallied 1.28% against the dollar to 1.3566, while the euro gained 1.18% to 1.1797, both benefiting from dollar weakness as risk appetite returned.

Trading Outlook

Cautiously bullish into the London open. The S&P 500's proximity to all-time highs and falling oil prices suggest the path of least resistance remains higher, but the Hormuz blockade hasn't actually ended — just the fear of it has eased. The 12:30 GMT US data dump (Empire State, import prices) could inject volatility if inflation signals heat up. Until crude stabilises and shipping lanes reopen, treat rallies as opportunities to tighten stops rather than chase.