Daily Market Briefing — 14 July 2026

Market Recap

US markets closed lower on Monday as geopolitical tensions overshadowed corporate earnings optimism. The S&P 500 fell 0.79% to 7,515.34, while the Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.88% to 29,264.10 as semiconductor stocks sold off sharply. Marvell led the decline with a 7.75% fall to $217.50, followed by Lam Research down 5.83% and Micron off 4.40%. The catalyst was clear: Trump's announcement of a blockade and shipping toll on the Strait of Hormuz — a major oil chokepoint — sent WTI crude surging 10.67% to $79.03 and Brent up to $84.12.

Key Movers & Themes

Hormuz Blockade Shakes Energy Markets: Trump's proposal to charge 20% on cargo through the Strait of Hormuz has brought oil supply risks back into sharp focus. The US launched a third consecutive night of strikes against Iranian military assets, with Tehran retaliating by targeting US facilities and Gulf state tankers. While the toll would raise shipping costs, analysts warn that an escalating conflict could remove barrels from the market altogether. WTI and Brent both jumped over 10% on Monday, the sharpest single-day gain in months.

Tech Sells Off on Rate Fears: Semiconductor stocks led the Nasdaq lower as traders positioned ahead of today's inflation data. Marvell, Lam Research, Micron, Klac, and AMD all fell between 2.6% and 7.8%. The sector's pullback reflects concerns that sticky inflation could keep rates elevated longer, pressuring high-valuation growth names. Breadth across the Nasdaq constituents was mixed, with 7 stocks showing bullish EMA trends but 13 registering bearish MACD crossovers.

China Export Surge Defies Tariff Fears: China's exports in June rose at the fastest pace since 2021, driven by an AI boom and a pre-tariff rush. Exports to the US jumped 14% last month while imports grew 26%, suggesting resilient demand despite trade tensions. The data provides a counterpoint to recession fears but may complicate the Fed's inflation calculus.

The Big Question

Can inflation cool enough to keep rate cuts on the table? Today's US CPI data at 12:30 GMT will answer that. Forecasts call for headline inflation to fall to 3.8% year-on-year from 4.2%, with the monthly reading expected at -0.1% after May's 0.5% jump. Core inflation is seen holding steady at 2.9%. A hotter-than-expected print would vindicate hawks and send yields higher, pressuring equities further. But a cooler number could revive the soft-landing narrative and give tech stocks room to recover. With oil spiking 10% overnight, the energy component will be closely watched — though it won't fully reflect Monday's surge until next month's data.

Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today

• 12:30 GMT — US Inflation Rate YoY (Jun): Forecast 3.8% vs 4.2% prior. The headline number. A miss could reignite rate cut hopes; a beat would cement the higher-for-longer narrative.
• 12:30 GMT — US Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun): Forecast 2.9% vs 2.9% prior. The Fed's preferred measure. Stability here would be welcomed, but any uptick risks a hawkish repricing.
• 12:30 GMT — US Inflation Rate MoM (Jun): Forecast -0.1% vs 0.5% prior. A negative print would be the first since late 2023 and could spark a relief rally.
• 14:00 GMT — Fed Chair Warsh Testimony: Markets will parse every word for clues on the policy path, especially in light of today's CPI and the oil spike.
• 08:00 GMT — BoE Governor Bailey Speech: UK-focused traders should watch for any hints on the August decision, though inflation data takes centre stage.

Technical Levels to Watch

The 200-level on Nvidia is doing the heavy lifting as support after yesterday's 3.5% drop — a break below could trigger further tech weakness. Across the Dow constituents, breadth is mixed with just 4 stocks showing bullish EMA trends versus 5 bearish, while 13 registered bullish MACD crossovers suggesting some early stabilisation. PayPal and Workday stand out as recovery plays, both above key moving averages with RSI in the 60s. One stock hit overbought territory: Mercado Libre with RSI at 70.0, though momentum remains strong. Watch the pivot levels closely today — a failure to reclaim them would confirm bearish continuation.

Commodities & Currencies

Energy markets stole the show as both WTI and Brent surged over 10% on Hormuz blockade fears — the sharpest one-day gain since the initial Iran strikes in May. Gold added 1% as safe-haven flows accelerated, while silver outpaced it with a 1.88% rally. Natural gas bucked the trend, falling 4.35% as mild weather forecasts offset broader energy strength. Currency markets were subdued, with the dollar holding steady against major pairs. Bitcoin slipped 0.38% as risk appetite cooled, though it remains above the key $62,900 support zone.

Trading Outlook

Neutral to bearish into the US open, with today's CPI data at 12:30 GMT the clear pivot point. A cooler-than-expected inflation print could spark a relief rally in tech and reverse yesterday's defensive rotation, while a hot number would likely extend the sell-off and push the S&P 500 toward the 7,420 support zone. The Strait of Hormuz situation adds a wildcard — further escalation could send oil toward $85-90, pressuring equities regardless of inflation data. Manage risk tightly ahead of the 12:30 GMT release and be ready for volatility in both directions.