Daily Market Briefing — 13 May 2026
US inflation jumped to 3.8% in April — the highest reading since May 2023 — sending markets into a recalibration on Tuesday as energy costs from the Iran conflict rippled through the economy. The S&P 500 slipped 0.16% to close at 7,400.96, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.87% to 29,064.80 as chipmakers sold off. Today brings another inflation test: the Producer Price Index at 12:30 GMT, with markets now pricing in virtually zero chance of Fed rate cuts through end-2027.
Market Recap
US markets closed mixed on Tuesday as April's CPI report showed inflation reaccelerating faster than expected. The S&P 500 dipped 0.16% to 7,400.96 and the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.87% to 29,064.80, weighed by Intel's weak guidance that triggered a broader chip sector selloff. The Dow Jones bucked the trend, edging up 0.11% to 49,760.56 on strength in defensive names. Market pricing took any chance of a Fed cut off the table between now and end-2027, with some traders even pricing in the possibility of a rate hike.
Key Movers & Themes
Inflation Reacceleration Dominates — Consumer prices rose 3.8% annually in April, above the 3.7% consensus and marking the highest level since May 2023. Energy costs surged as the Iran war disrupted supply chains, but it wasn't just oil — clothing prices saw their biggest jump in three years as manufacturers raised prices in anticipation of further Iran war effects. The report has fundamentally shifted Fed expectations, with markets now questioning whether the next move could be a hike rather than a cut.
Chip Sector Under Pressure — Intel's disappointing guidance sparked a sharp selloff across semiconductors, with analysts citing buyer exhaustion and concerns about what rising inflation might mean for future data-centre spending commitments. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang joined President Trump's China trip after a direct call from the president, adding a geopolitical dimension to the sector's narrative. The move comes as Trump and Xi prepare to meet, with both sides expected to reaffirm their shared intention to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
UK Political Uncertainty Weighs on Gilts — UK borrowing costs jumped as uncertainty over the Prime Minister's future unsettled investors, sending bond yields higher. The political instability adds another layer of complexity for UK traders already navigating elevated oil prices and global inflation pressures.
The Big Question
Can markets keep rallying into the third month of the US-Iran conflict? Bulls argue stocks are rising for three very real reasons: corporate earnings remain resilient, the conflict hasn't escalated beyond the Strait of Hormuz, and investors are betting on a diplomatic breakthrough at the Trump-Xi summit. Bears counter that markets aren't ignoring Iran — they're underpricing the risk of sustained inflation and the paralysis that uncertainty creates for capital investment. Today's PPI data could tip the scales either way.
Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today
- 12:30 GMT — US PPI MoM (Apr) — Forecast 0.5%, Previous 0.5%. Core PPI expected at 0.3% vs 0.1% prior. This is the day's key event after yesterday's hot CPI print. Another upside surprise could cement rate hike fears.
- 09:00 GMT — EU Industrial Production MoM (Mar) — Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.4%. Watch for signs of slowdown in European manufacturing amid supply chain disruptions.
- 14:30 GMT — EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (May/08) — Forecast -2.0M barrels, Previous -2.314M. With WTI above $100, inventory data matters more than usual.
- 15:30 GMT — Fed Collins Speech — Any hawkish shift in tone could amplify market jitters after the inflation data.
- 19:15 GMT — ECB President Lagarde Speech — European policy divergence from the Fed is widening; Lagarde's commentary on inflation and growth will be closely watched.
Technical Levels to Watch
| Stock | Close | Pivot | Support (S1 / S2) | Resistance (R1 / R2) | Cam S3 / R3 | RSI | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 265.82 | 265.37 | 263.08 / 260.35 | 268.10 / 270.39 | 264.44 / 267.20 | 63.8 | Bullish |
| JPM | 304.88 | 302.16 | 298.27 / 291.65 | 308.78 / 312.67 | 301.99 / 307.77 | 48.3 | Neutral |
| NVDA | 220.78 | 219.82 | 215.88 / 210.99 | 224.71 / 228.65 | 218.35 / 223.21 | 69.3 | Bullish |
| IBM | 219.22 | 220.96 | 217.48 / 215.75 | 222.69 / 226.17 | 217.79 / 220.65 | 35.2 | Bearish |
Rio Tinto and BATS are overbought on RSI above 70, suggesting potential pullbacks. On the Dow side, 6 of 15 stocks show bullish EMA alignment, with NVDA and CSCO leading.
Commodities & Currencies
| Instrument | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Oil | $100.71 | -$1.47 | -1.44% |
| Brent Oil | $106.22 | -$1.55 | -1.44% |
| Gold | $4,705.50 | +$27.90 | +0.60% |
| Silver | $86.74 | +$1.61 | +1.89% |
| Natural Gas | $2.830 | +$0.070 | +2.68% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3549 | -0.0043 | -0.32% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1737 | -0.0010 | -0.09% |
| USD/JPY | 157.69 | +1.18 | +0.75% |
| Bitcoin | $80,998.67 | -$729.63 | -0.89% |
Oil pulled back from recent highs but remains elevated, with WTI at $100.71 and Brent at $106.22 — both still reflecting the Iran war premium. Gold gained 0.60% to $4,705.50 as inflation hedge demand persists, while silver outperformed with a 1.89% jump to $86.74. Copper prices hit record highs as refining faces its own Strait of Hormuz problem, adding to supply chain concerns. The dollar strengthened against sterling and the yen, with USD/JPY pushing to 157.69 as rate divergence expectations widen.
Trading Outlook
Neutral to cautiously bearish into the PPI print at 12:30 GMT. The catalyst that flips this: a softer PPI combined with positive headlines from the Trump-Xi summit on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Risk management is key today; if you're long, tighten stops ahead of the data.
This briefing is generated using AI analysis of market data and news feeds, reviewed by the ChartsView team. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making trading decisions.