Daily Market Briefing — 13 July 2026

Market Recap

US markets closed Friday on a positive note, with the S&P 500 adding 0.42% to finish at 7,575.39 and the NASDAQ 100 climbing 0.33% to 29,825.11. The session lacked a clear catalyst, with traders positioning ahead of this week's economic data and Fed speeches. What mattered more was the tone — steady accumulation rather than conviction buying, leaving indices near recent highs but without the momentum to push decisively through resistance.

Key Movers & Themes

Tech Earnings Optimism: TSMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker, reported a 68% surge in June revenue ahead of its second-quarter earnings, reinforcing the narrative that AI demand remains robust. Executives continue to describe AI-related demand as "almost unlimited" even as enterprises shift focus toward "valuemaxxing" — extracting maximum value from their AI investments. This backdrop helped lift semiconductor names on Friday, with AMAT up 2.35% and AMD gaining 2.04%.

Middle East Tensions Escalate: Over the weekend, the US and Iran traded fire as tensions rose over the Strait of Hormuz. Within hours of fresh US attacks, Iran said it had struck US military bases in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain. The escalation has immediate implications for oil markets and broader risk sentiment as traders return Monday morning. WTI crude surged 4.83% to $74.86, while Brent jumped 4.74% to $79.61, reflecting supply concerns through the critical shipping chokepoint.

SpaceX Reality Check: A month after SpaceX's historic IPO, the excitement appears to be fading as the reality of how the company currently makes money comes into clearer focus. The stock has given back some of its initial gains, highlighting the gap between visionary ambition and near-term profitability — a reminder that even the most hyped listings face scrutiny once the roadshow ends.

The Big Question

Can equity markets shrug off Middle East risk, or will oil above $75 force a repricing? Bulls argue that previous geopolitical flare-ups have proven short-lived, with markets quickly refocusing on fundamentals. Bears counter that sustained oil strength feeds directly into inflation expectations, complicating the Fed's path and threatening margin compression for energy-intensive sectors. Today's price action will reveal which narrative has the upper hand.

Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today

• 09:25 GMT — Fed Bowman Speech (US): Governor Bowman's comments on inflation and the rate path will be closely watched given recent mixed data.
• 16:30 GMT — Fed Waller Speech (US): Another Fed voice to parse for clues on the September meeting bias.
• 18:00 GMT — Monthly Budget Statement (US, June): Forecast -$132.8bn vs previous -$293bn. Deficit trends matter for Treasury supply dynamics.
• 23:01 GMT — BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (UK, June): Forecast 2.9% vs previous 3.4%. A slowdown here would add to concerns about UK consumer resilience.

The Fed speeches are the main event — any hawkish tilt could pressure equities, particularly if oil's surge is acknowledged as an inflation risk.

Technical Levels to Watch

The pivot levels on META and NVDA are critical today — both are trading just above their pivots with room to run toward R1 if risk appetite holds. Breadth across the Dow constituents shows 6 stocks in bullish EMA alignment (price above EMA20 above EMA50) versus 5 in bearish alignment, with the remainder mixed. No stocks are overbought or oversold on RSI, leaving room for directional moves. MACD signals show 15 bullish crossovers against 5 bearish, suggesting underlying momentum favours buyers — but that was before the weekend's geopolitical shock.

Commodities & Currencies

Oil's surge dominates the commodity complex, with both WTI and Brent up nearly 5% on Strait of Hormuz supply fears. Interestingly, gold slipped 0.80% despite the geopolitical flare-up, suggesting traders are pricing oil disruption rather than broader safe-haven demand. Natural gas collapsed 9.50%, likely on weather-driven demand concerns. The dollar firmed modestly against sterling and the euro, while Bitcoin drifted lower in quiet weekend trade.

Trading Outlook

Neutral to cautiously bearish into the London open. Oil above $75 is the wildcard — if it holds or extends, expect defensives to outperform and growth stocks to face pressure. Watch the first hour of US futures for direction — if they fade the Friday gains, risk-off could accelerate. Fed speeches this afternoon could provide the catalyst for a late-day reversal if they sound dovish, but the base case is choppy trade with an energy bid.