Daily Market Briefing — 13 August 2026

Market Recap

US markets delivered a cautiously optimistic session on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 closing up 0.26% at 7,748.50 and the Nasdaq 100 gaining 0.74% to 29,742.60. The Dow Jones slipped 0.04% to 53,770.27, weighed by financials and industrials. The session was defined by July's CPI print — US inflation held at 3.4% annually with a 0.1% monthly rise, exactly in line with forecasts. Food costs cooled and fuel pressures moderated, but housing kept the headline number sticky. The bigger question now shifts to today's PPI data, which will reveal whether wholesale price pressures are building or fading.

Key Movers & Themes

Semiconductors Stage Comeback: Chip stocks led Wednesday's rally, with Micron surging 4.92% to 911.3, Lam Research up 4.72% to 326.1, and KLA gaining 3.88% to 208.2. Applied Materials added 4.29% to 548.15. The moves came as South Korea's Kospi rallied 22% in just 10 days, driven by a semiconductor revival that's pushed the index back into bull-market territory. A Chinese firm has now topped Micron and Kioxia in NAND memory chip shipments, highlighting the intensifying global competition in AI-critical components.

Iran Standoff Supports Oil: WTI crude rose 1.01% to $82.96 and Brent climbed 1.27% to $88.83 after Iran's Persian Gulf Authority disputed Trump's claims, stating the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked and will not reopen until Iran's conditions are accepted. Shipping traffic has sunk to near three-month lows. The UK government has been warned the conflict could hit growth next year as oil and fuel prices climb and supply chains face disruption.

Tech Earnings Mixed: Cisco delivered record results from an AI supercycle with an 18% revenue surge and a blowout 2027 forecast, yet the stock pulled back as investors questioned sustainability. Super Micro Computer impressed with profitability trends and revenue projections, but analysts remain sceptical about momentum. Cerebras plunged 14% despite beating Q2 revenue expectations and raising full-year guidance. The neocloud trade is heating up, with Nebius and CoreWeave both delivering upbeat demand signals.

The Big Question

Can the Fed claim victory on inflation, or is the AI build-out complicating the picture? Bulls point to yesterday's in-line CPI print, cooling food costs, and easing fuel pressures as evidence the Fed's tightening cycle is working. Bears counter that AI's costly data centre build-out is creating fresh inflation pressures — tech leaders promise AI will eventually drive down costs, but slow corporate adoption and massive infrastructure spending are keeping prices elevated in the near term. Today's PPI report will offer the next clue.

Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today

• 06:00 GMT — UK GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel (Q2): Forecast 0.4% vs 0.6% prior. Annual rate expected at 1.1% vs 0.9%. The first read on Q2 growth will set the tone for BoE rate expectations.
• 06:00 GMT — UK GDP MoM (Jun): Forecast flat vs 0.1% prior. A stall would add to concerns about momentum heading into H2.
• 12:30 GMT — US PPI MoM (Jul): Forecast 0.2% vs -0.3% prior. Core PPI expected at 0.3% vs 0.2%. This is the day's main event — a hot print would reignite inflation fears and pressure equities.
• 12:30 GMT — US Initial Jobless Claims (Aug/08): Forecast 202k vs 199k prior. Labour market resilience remains a key Fed input.
• 06:00 GMT — UK Manufacturing Production MoM (Jun): Actual -0.5% vs -0.2% forecast and -0.2% prior. Industrial Production came in at -0.2% vs 0.1% forecast. Both prints underscore the UK's manufacturing struggles.

Technical Levels to Watch

The semiconductor rally is technically sound — MU, LRCX, KLAC, and AMAT are all trading above their pivot points with bullish RSI and MACD crossovers. Watch MU's 931.5 resistance; a break confirms continuation. Five stocks are overbought (RSI above 70) including PANW, PYPL, and REGN — these could see profit-taking. Dow breadth is slightly weaker with 8 bullish, 7 bearish, and 5 mixed. META's breakdown below all EMAs with RSI at 43.9 is concerning for mega-cap tech.

Commodities & Currencies

Oil's advance reflects the Hormuz blockade — Brent's 1.27% gain to $88.83 keeps energy traders on edge as shipping traffic remains depressed. Gold added 0.81% to $4,444.70, holding near recent highs as geopolitical risk supports haven demand. Sterling gained 0.30% against the dollar to 1.3495 ahead of this morning's GDP data. The yen weakened 0.87% to 159.26, reflecting renewed dollar strength and diverging central bank policies.

Trading Outlook

Cautiously bullish into the PPI print, but the Hormuz situation and overbought tech names create downside risk. If PPI comes in hot (above 0.3% MoM), expect a swift reversal in equities and a dollar rally. For the S&P, 7,728 (yesterday's close) now acts as support; watch for a retest if PPI disappoints. Stay nimble into 12:30 GMT.