Daily Market Briefing — 13 April 2026

Market Recap

Friday's session was all about oil and geopolitics. The failure of US-Iran negotiations over the weekend triggered an immediate risk-off response, with the Dow Jones shedding 269 points to close at 47,916.57. The S&P 500 gave back 7.77 points to 6,816.89, while tech resilience kept the Nasdaq 100 marginally positive at 25,116.34. Sterling strengthened 1.31% against the dollar to 1.3407 as the greenback weakened across the board. Asian markets opened lower on Monday as the reality of a potential Strait of Hormuz closure sank in, with oil prices holding above the psychologically critical $100 mark.

Key Movers & Themes

Energy Crisis Escalates: The collapse of US-Iran talks and Washington's move toward a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices soaring. WTI crude jumped 8.14% to $104.43 while Brent climbed 7.10% to $101.96. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20% of global oil supply, and any prolonged closure threatens to deepen the energy crisis. EU airline industry bodies have already warned of jet fuel shortages if the strait remains closed, adding another layer of concern for transport and logistics sectors.

Dollar Weakness Boosts Pound: Sterling rallied 1.31% against the dollar to 1.3407 on Friday, while the euro gained the same percentage to 1.1692. The dollar's weakness came despite rising geopolitical tensions, suggesting markets are pricing in potential US economic slowdown from higher energy costs. The yen also firmed slightly, with USD/JPY up just 0.65% to 159.68.

Tech Holds Firm: While the Dow and S&P 500 slipped, the Nasdaq 100's 0.14% gain to 25,116.34 showed tech stocks maintaining relative strength. This divergence suggests investors are still willing to hold growth names even as energy uncertainty clouds the broader outlook.

The Big Question

Can equities hold up if oil stays above $100? Bulls argue that the market has already priced in elevated energy costs and that tech earnings remain robust. Bears counter that sustained triple-digit oil will crush consumer spending and corporate margins, particularly in Europe where energy dependence is acute. Friday's modest losses suggest markets are in wait-and-see mode, but US futures down 500 points on Monday morning hint that patience may be running thin.

Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today

• 14:00 GMT — US Existing Home Sales (Mar): Forecast 4.01M vs 4.09M prior. A decline would add to concerns about US consumer health amid rising energy costs. The month-on-month comparison (previous +1.7%) will show whether the housing market is stabilising or rolling over.
• 22:20 GMT — Fed Miran Speech: Any commentary on inflation expectations or energy price impacts will be closely watched given the oil surge.
• 23:01 GMT — UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (Mar): Forecast 0.9% vs 0.7% prior. A modest improvement, but with oil spiking, the April data could tell a very different story.

Technical Levels to Watch

The S&P 500's 6,750 support level is critical today — a break below would open the door to 6,650 and signal that Friday's resilience was temporary. On the upside, reclaiming 6,850 would ease immediate pressure, but with futures down sharply, bulls have work to do.

Commodities & Currencies

Oil's surge past $100 dominated commodity markets, with WTI and Brent both posting their biggest single-day gains in months. Gold slipped 0.36% to $4,744.80 despite geopolitical tensions, suggesting investors prefer liquid assets in the current environment. Silver fell harder, down 2.16% to $74.67. Bitcoin dropped 3.01% to $70,857.44 as risk appetite waned. Sterling's 1.31% rally against the dollar to 1.3407 was the standout FX move, with the euro matching that gain to 1.1692.

Trading Outlook

Bearish bias dominates the open with US futures down 500 points and Asian markets under pressure. The key catalyst that could flip sentiment is any sign of diplomatic progress on the Iran blockade — but with talks having failed over the weekend, that looks unlikely in the near term. Watch the 6,750 level on the S&P 500 closely: a break below would confirm Friday's resilience was just a pause before further selling. Energy stocks may find support, but broad market weakness looks set to continue until oil stabilises.