Daily Market Briefing — 12 August 2026
US markets slipped on Tuesday as traders positioned ahead of Wednesday's critical inflation data, while geopolitical tensions flared in the Red Sea with the first shipping fatalities in over a year. The S&P 500 closed 0.32% lower at 7,728.20, the Dow shed 0.34% to 53,791.85, and the Nasdaq 100 dipped 0.33% to 29,525.48. London traders face a pivotal session with US CPI at 12:30 GMT set to dictate the Fed's next move — and potentially swing global risk sentiment.
Market Recap
Tuesday's session saw modest losses across US indices as investors exercised caution ahead of today's inflation print. The S&P 500 fell 0.32% to 7,728.20, while the Dow Jones slipped 0.34% to 53,791.85 and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.33% to 29,525.48. Energy stocks provided support as oil prices climbed over 2%, with WTI up 2.03% to $83.80 and Brent gaining 2.04% to $89.51 following heightened Red Sea shipping risks. Gold advanced 1.42% to $4,445.30 as safe-haven demand returned.
Key Movers & Themes
AI Infrastructure Boom Continues: CoreWeave's stock surged 14% after revenue doubled, driven by accelerating AI infrastructure demand, though the company carries $35 billion in debt. Super Micro and Lumentum also posted blowout earnings, with Lumentum seeing sales more than double on AI demand. The AI theme remains the dominant force in tech, even as concerns emerge about spending sustainability and Oracle's lack of clarity on future AI capex plans.
Red Sea Tensions Escalate: A Houthi attack on shipping in the Red Sea killed six people in the first fatalities in over a year, hitting both a cargoship and containership. The incident underscores ongoing risks to critical global shipping lanes and contributed to Tuesday's oil price rally. Energy traders are watching whether this marks a new phase of disruption or remains an isolated event.
Currency Intervention Fading: The Japanese yen has erased about half the gains from the unprecedented US-Japan intervention less than two weeks ago, with USD/JPY climbing 0.95% to 159.39 on Tuesday. The failure to halt the yen's slide raises questions about the effectiveness of coordinated intervention and suggests structural dollar strength remains intact.
The Big Question
Will today's CPI data give the Fed room to cut in September? The consensus expects headline inflation at 3.4% year-on-year (down from 3.5%) and core at 2.5% (down from 2.6%). A softer-than-expected print would cement September rate cut bets and likely spark a risk-on rally. But any upside surprise — particularly in core services — could push the Fed back into wait-and-see mode, pressuring equities and lifting the dollar. The market is priced for dovish confirmation; anything else will sting.
Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today
- 12:30 GMT — US Inflation Rate YoY (Jul): Forecast 3.4% vs 3.5% prior. The headline event. A miss higher keeps the Fed hawkish; a beat lower opens the door for September cuts.
- 12:30 GMT — US Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jul): Forecast 2.5% vs 2.6% prior. Core is what the Fed watches most closely — services inflation remains the sticky component.
- 12:30 GMT — US Core Inflation Rate MoM (Jul): Forecast 0.2% vs 0.0% prior. Month-on-month momentum matters for trajectory.
- 14:30 GMT — EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: Forecast -0.5M barrels vs +2.479M prior. With oil rallying on geopolitical risk, inventory data could add fuel or provide relief.
- 23:01 GMT — UK RICS House Price Balance (Jul): Forecast -31% vs -33% prior. A minor release but worth watching for UK housing sentiment trends.
Technical Levels to Watch
| Stock | Close | Pivot | Support (S1 / S2) | Resistance (R1 / R2) | Cam S3 / R3 | RSI | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 304.91 | 305.89 | 301.81 / 298.71 | 308.99 / 313.07 | 302.94 / 306.88 | 41.9 | Bearish |
| MSFT | 503.81 | 502.90 | 500.46 / 497.12 | 506.24 / 508.68 | 502.22 / 505.40 | 77.7 | Overbought |
| AMZN | 272.27 | 274.16 | 269.47 / 266.68 | 276.95 / 281.64 | 270.21 / 274.33 | 61.0 | Bullish |
| JPM | 362.04 | 361.25 | 359.39 / 356.73 | 363.91 / 365.77 | 360.80 / 363.28 | 66.5 | Bullish |
US markets show 19 Dow stocks bullish on EMAs, with MSFT and AMGN both overbought above 70 RSI.
Commodities & Currencies
| Instrument | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Oil | $83.80 | +$1.67 | +2.03% |
| Brent Oil | $89.51 | +$1.79 | +2.04% |
| Gold | $4,445.30 | +$62.30 | +1.42% |
| Silver | $65.25 | +$1.92 | +3.04% |
| Natural Gas | $2.780 | +$0.120 | +4.32% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3506 | +0.0036 | +0.27% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1537 | -0.0020 | -0.17% |
| USD/JPY | 159.39 | +1.50 | +0.95% |
| Bitcoin | $63,780.11 | -$130.48 | -0.20% |
Energy markets led the charge on Tuesday, with natural gas surging 4.32% to $2.78 as summer demand and supply concerns collide. Silver outpaced gold with a 3.04% rally to $65.25, suggesting industrial demand is picking up alongside safe-haven flows. The dollar strengthened across the board, with USD/JPY climbing back toward 160 despite recent intervention efforts — a clear sign that markets are testing central bank resolve.
Trading Outlook
Neutral to slightly bearish into the CPI print at 12:30 GMT. The consensus is priced in — any upside surprise will trigger sharp selling, particularly in rate-sensitive tech. If CPI comes in soft, we could see a relief rally into month-end, but until then, risk management trumps conviction. The one catalyst that flips this? A core CPI print at 2.3% or lower — that would ignite September cut expectations and send equities sharply higher.
This briefing is generated using AI analysis of market data and news feeds, reviewed by the ChartsView team. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making trading decisions.