Daily Market Briefing — 11 May 2026

Market Recap

US markets ended Friday on a positive note, with the Nasdaq 100 leading the charge with a 2.35% gain to close at 29,234.99, while the S&P 500 added 0.84% to finish at 7,398.93. The Dow Jones barely budged, up just 0.02% to 49,609.16, as heavyweight industrials offset tech strength. But Friday's close feels like ancient history now — the real story is what happened over the weekend, with Trump's dismissal of Iran's ceasefire proposal sending oil markets into overdrive and raising the spectre of prolonged Middle East conflict.

Key Movers & Themes

Energy Markets Explode on Iran War Escalation: WTI crude jumped 4.71% to $99.91 and Brent surged 4.08% to $105.42 after Israel's Netanyahu declared the Iran war is "not over" and Trump rejected the latest Iranian offer to end hostilities. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, severely disrupting global energy shipments and pushing oil back above the psychologically critical $100 mark. Energy stocks are set to dominate Monday's trading, with Shell and BP likely to see strong buying interest at the London open.

Tech Continues Its Relentless March: Cisco Systems soared 4.79% on Friday to close at $96.57, hitting overbought territory with an RSI of 72.5, while Apple gained 2.02% to $293.26 and Nvidia added 1.76% to $215.22. Amazon also pushed higher, up 0.56% to $272.68, as the tech sector shrugged off broader market concerns. Michael Burry's warning that markets feel like "the last months of the 1999-2000 bubble" hasn't dented enthusiasm for AI and data centre plays, with Cerebras reportedly raising its IPO price range to $150-$160 per share amid surging demand.

UnitedHealth bucked the healthcare weakness in the US, surging 2.77% to $379.98 with an overbought RSI of 80.3, but McDonald's crashed 2.80% to $275.75 as consumer discretionary names faced selling pressure.

The Big Question

Can equities rally with oil above $100? Bulls argue that energy producers will see earnings upgrades and that the economy has proven resilient to previous oil shocks. Bears counter that sustained crude above $100 feeds directly into inflation expectations, potentially forcing central banks to keep rates higher for longer and squeezing consumer spending. With Trump and Xi set to meet this week — the first US presidential visit to China in almost a decade — the tariff truce hangs in the balance, adding another layer of uncertainty. South Korea's Kospi hit fresh records overnight, suggesting Asian markets are looking through the geopolitical noise, but European traders may prove more cautious.

Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today

• 14:00 GMT — US Existing Home Sales (April): Forecast 4.05 million vs 3.98 million prior. This is the key data point today, offering insight into whether the housing market is stabilising after months of weakness. A beat could support risk appetite; a miss would add to growth concerns.
• 14:00 GMT — US Existing Home Sales MoM (April): Previous -3.6%. Month-on-month change will show whether the housing downturn is accelerating or bottoming.
• 23:01 GMT — UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (April): Forecast 0.8% vs 3.1% prior. A sharp deceleration in UK retail sales would add pressure on the pound and raise questions about consumer resilience heading into summer.

Technical Levels to Watch

In the Dow, 13 stocks are bullish on EMAs versus 13 bearish, reflecting a market in equilibrium. MACD signals are evenly split, with 16 bullish crossovers and 14 bearish across Dow components, suggesting no clear directional conviction heading into the week.

Commodities & Currencies

Energy markets are the clear story, with both WTI and Brent posting their strongest single-day gains in weeks as the Iran conflict intensifies. Silver's 4.98% surge to $80.64 reflects both industrial demand and safe-haven flows, while gold's 1.10% decline to $4,668.60 suggests profit-taking after recent strength. Natural gas also gained 2.60%, likely on supply concerns tied to Middle East instability. Sterling and the euro both strengthened modestly against the dollar, with cable up 0.40% to 1.3585 and EUR/USD gaining 0.53% to 1.1754, as the greenback weakened on risk-off positioning.

Trading Outlook

Neutral to cautiously bullish, with energy sector strength likely to offset broader market caution. The catalyst that could flip sentiment? Any sign of progress in US-China talks this week or a surprise de-escalation in the Middle East. For US traders, the S&P 500's 7,400 level is critical resistance; a clean break above on Monday would suggest the market is looking through the oil shock. Stay alert to the 14:00 GMT housing data — a weak print could trigger afternoon selling despite the morning's energy-driven strength.