Daily Market Briefing — 11 March 2026
Oil prices plunge over 7% as Trump declares Iran conflict 'very complete', while US CPI data at 12:30 GMT today could reshape Fed rate expectations with inflation forecast at 2.4% YoY [Economic Calendar]. Markets brace for volatility as geopolitical tensions ease but inflation risks persist.
Market Recap
US equity markets closed mixed Tuesday, with the S&P 500 down 0.52% to 6,781.48 and the Dow Jones falling 1.64% to 47,706.51, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.96% to 24,956.47 on the back of Oracle's 9% surge following a 44% cloud revenue jump. Stock futures showed little change ahead of Wednesday's critical consumer inflation report.
Key Movers & Themes
- Oracle +9%: Shares jumped after the company beat earnings and increased guidance, with cloud revenue climbing 44% and revenue backlog growing by $30 billion in the February quarter — the first time in over 15 years Oracle grew both revenue and earnings by at least 20%.
- Oil collapse: WTI crude plunged 7.71% to $83.89 and Brent fell 8.30% to $85.00 after President Trump stated the Iran war is 'very complete', triggering a retreat from the week's highs near $120 per barrel. The International Energy Agency scheduled an extraordinary meeting to discuss possible emergency stockpile releases.
- Geopolitical premium unwinding: Markets priced out some Middle East risk premium despite US forces sinking 16 Iranian minelayers in the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump warning of 'military consequences at a level never seen before' if mines were not removed. Shipping costs remain elevated as the world's second-largest shipping firm warned war costs will be passed to consumers.
Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today
- 12:30 GMT — US Inflation Rate YoY (Feb): Forecast 2.4%, Previous 2.4%. Critical data point for Fed rate path expectations.
- 12:30 GMT — US Core Inflation Rate YoY (Feb): Forecast 2.5%, Previous 2.5%. Excludes volatile food and energy components.
- 12:30 GMT — US Inflation Rate MoM (Feb): Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.2%. Monthly price pressure gauge.
- 12:30 GMT — US Core Inflation Rate MoM (Feb): Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.3%. Traders see this as a major inflection point for Federal Reserve outlooks.
- 14:30 GMT — EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Mar/06): Forecast +2.8M barrels, Previous +3.475M. Weekly inventory data amid supply disruption concerns.
Technical Levels to Watch
| Instrument | Support | Resistance |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,635 / 6,780 | 6,820 / 6,885 |
| NAS100 | 24,290 / 24,720 | 24,960 / 25,190 |
| US30 | 46,615 / 47,705 | 48,500 / 48,855 |
Commodities & Currencies
| Instrument | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Oil | $83.89 | -$7.01 | -7.71% |
| Brent Oil | $85.00 | -$7.69 | -8.30% |
| Gold | $5,202.50 | +$56.40 | +1.10% |
| Silver | $87.57 | +$3.75 | +4.48% |
| Natural Gas | $3.040 | -$0.150 | -4.46% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3450 | +0.0080 | +0.60% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1637 | +0.0001 | +0.01% |
| USD/JPY | 157.98 | +1.00 | +0.64% |
| Bitcoin | $69,942.95 | +$2,670.36 | +3.97% |
Crude oil suffered its sharpest single-day decline in months as Trump's declaration that the Iran war is 'very complete' triggered profit-taking from panic highs near $120. Safe-haven flows boosted gold +1.10% and silver surged +4.48% as investors hedged against inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainty. Sterling gained 0.60% against the dollar while natural gas fell 4.46% on easing supply concerns. US gas prices have climbed 21% in the past month to pass $3.50 per gallon, the highest since 2024.
Trading Outlook
Today's 12:30 GMT US CPI print is the critical catalyst — a hotter-than-expected 0.3% MoM reading could reignite inflation fears and pressure equities, while any downside surprise may fuel a relief rally. Geopolitical risk premium continues to unwind, but Strait of Hormuz tensions and shipping disruptions keep energy markets on edge, making oil volatility the swing factor for broader market sentiment.
This briefing is generated using AI analysis of market data and news feeds, reviewed by the ChartsView team. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making trading decisions.