Daily Market Briefing — 08 April 2026

Market Recap

US markets closed Tuesday's session in positive territory, though the ceasefire announcement came late enough that the full impact will be felt in Wednesday's trading. The S&P 500 added 0.52% to close at 6,616.85, while the NASDAQ 100 climbed 0.65% to 24,202.37 as tech stocks found their footing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.17% to 46,584.46. The real fireworks came after the US close — WTI crude plunged 15.17% to $95.82, while Brent fell 14.11% to $93.85 as traders priced in the prospect of resumed oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Key Movers & Themes

Ceasefire Sparks Broad Relief Rally: Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif brokered the two-week delay to Trump's Iran deadline, with both sides agreeing to open the Strait of Hormuz for the same period. Asian markets responded with enthusiasm — South Korean stocks led gains across the region as investors bet on easing supply chain pressures and lower energy costs. However, the ceasefire remains fragile: Gulf countries reported intercepting ballistic missiles and drones from Iran within hours of the announcement, a reminder that the situation could deteriorate quickly.

Energy Sector Whipsawed: The oil price collapse is a double-edged sword. Airlines, which had been cutting flights and hiking fares due to surging jet fuel costs, stand to benefit immediately. Conversely, energy majors face pressure — though the sector had been pricing in sustained triple-digit oil, so some profit-taking was overdue. Natural gas slipped 2.18% to $2.74, suggesting broader commodity weakness.

Safe Havens Stay Bid: Despite the risk-on tone, gold surged 4.36% to $4,860.00 and silver jumped 7.76% to $77.40, reflecting lingering uncertainty about the durability of the ceasefire. Bitcoin also rallied 4.17% to $71,729.73, benefiting from both risk appetite and haven flows — a rare combination that speaks to the market's conflicted sentiment.

The Big Question

Is this ceasefire a turning point or just a two-week pause? Bulls argue that reopening the Strait of Hormuz removes the single biggest tail risk facing global markets, allowing equities to resume their uptrend and giving central banks room to ease policy without worrying about imported inflation. Bears counter that nothing has been resolved — Iran and the US remain on a collision course, and the ceasefire merely delays the inevitable. The next two weeks will be critical: if negotiations produce a lasting framework, risk assets could run significantly higher. If talks collapse, we're back to square one — only with markets more complacent and positioning more crowded.

Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today

• 18:00 GMT — FOMC Minutes (US): The headline event. Markets will scrutinise the Fed's internal debate on rate cuts, especially given the recent inflation spike driven by energy costs. Any hints that the committee is leaning dovish could extend the rally.
• 06:00 GMT — Halifax House Price Index (UK): YoY forecast 1.5% vs 1.3% prior; MoM forecast 0.1% vs 0.3% prior. A modest uptick would support the view that UK housing is stabilising despite higher mortgage rates.
• 09:00 GMT — Retail Sales MoM (EU): Forecast -0.2% vs -0.1% prior. Weakness here would reinforce concerns about European consumer spending as energy bills bite.
• 14:30 GMT — EIA Crude Oil Stocks (US): Forecast -1.0M barrels vs +5.451M prior. With oil prices collapsing, inventory data takes on added significance — a surprise build could accelerate the selloff.

Technical Levels to Watch

On the S&P, 6,650 is the first hurdle; clear that and momentum traders will target 6,720.

Commodities & Currencies

The oil collapse is the story of the session — WTI and Brent both down over 14% as the ceasefire removes the supply shock premium. Sterling and the euro both rallied against the dollar, gaining nearly 1% each as risk appetite returned. Gold's 4.36% surge is notable — typically safe havens retreat when risk assets rally, but the precious metal is clearly pricing in residual geopolitical uncertainty. Silver's 7.76% jump reflects both haven demand and industrial optimism.

Trading Outlook

Bullish — but with a two-week expiry date. The ceasefire has removed the immediate tail risk, and markets are likely to rally further on Wednesday as European and US traders digest the news. However, this is a tactical opportunity, not a strategic shift. The FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could extend or reverse the rally depending on the Fed's inflation assessment. Manage risk tightly: if ceasefire talks break down before the two weeks are up, the snapback will be violent.