Daily Market Briefing — 06 November 2026

Market Recap

Thursday was a wholesale unwind of the AI trade. The S&P 500 closed at 7,353.73, down 4.36%, within a whisker of its five-day low of 7,350.35 and losing an estimated $2.9 trillion in market cap, the largest one-day loss on record. The Nasdaq 100 fell 6.36% to 26,629.81 and the Dow lost 3.44% to 51,523.06. The Magnificent 7 shed around $1 trillion, and the catalyst was the US midterms: Democratic winners are calling for tougher limits on AI and data-centre buildout. Asia has followed Wall Street lower this morning, with chip names including SK Hynix, Samsung, Softbank and TSMC hit, and Japan's Nikkei 225 has entered a bear market. Stock futures are mixed.

Key Movers & Themes

Semiconductors bore the brunt. Micron fell 17.46%, Marvell 16.43%, Lam Research 16.36%, AMD 17.26% and Applied Materials 13.58%. Nvidia dropped 9.31% to $181.60, and Broadcom lost 10.43%.

The 'Musk selloff'. Tesla fell 10.77% to $343.69, and Tesla and SpaceX have combined for a roughly $456 billion two-day wipeout as investors worry a divided Washington could derail 'Elon, Inc.'

Pockets of resilience. Cloudflare staged a big comeback after its fastest sales surge in nearly four years, and Iren rebounded on a new cloud-computing deal. Costco bucked the trend, up 1.83% to $1,065.59. Elsewhere, India's Nifty 50 has gained nearly 9% over the last month while AI-heavy markets slump, and consumer discretionary names are drawing attention as a rotation play post-election.

The Big Question

Is this a buying opportunity or the start of something deeper? Bulls point to five Nasdaq 100 names in oversold territory, with RSIs below 30 in Micron, Marvell, Lam Research and Fortinet, and to retail investors already eyeing the dip. Bears note that retail selling has hit one of its highest levels since the COVID crash, that policy risk around AI is new rather than priced, and that every one of those oversold names sits below all its EMAs.

Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today

• 13:30 GMT, US: Non-Farm Payrolls (Oct.) — forecast 65, previous 29. This is the one that matters most, as a weak print could add to risk-off while a strong one tests rate expectations.
• 13:30 GMT, US: Unemployment Rate — forecast 4.2%, previous 4.2%
• 13:30 GMT, US: Average Hourly Earnings MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 0.1%
• 15:00 GMT, US: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prelim — forecast 48, previous 46.3
• 10:00 GMT, EU: Retail Sales MoM (Sep.) — forecast -0.1%, previous 0.1%

Technical Levels to Watch

Nvidia's $176.62 S1 is the level to watch for the AI complex, as a hold keeps a relief bounce alive and a break opens $171.65. Breadth is poor: 9 of 20 Nasdaq 100 names and 10 of 20 Dow names sit in bearish EMA alignment, against just 6 bullish in each. MACD tells the same story, with 13 of 20 bearish in both groups, and RSI extremes are concentrated in semis, with five oversold readings in the Nasdaq 100 and four in the Dow.

Commodities & Currencies

Oil is firmer as investors weigh renewed US-Iran conflict risk after the midterms. Rapidan Energy's Bob McNally expects both Brent and WTI to jump above $100, and Brent is already at $99.90. Bitcoin dropped 5.98% to $75,599.90, tracking the broader risk-off tone, while gold slipped 1.41%. Sterling is steady near 1.34, with the pound at its highest against a basket of currencies since the Brexit referendum and the Bank of England hiking to 4% on Thursday.

Trading Outlook

The bias is cautiously bearish after the worst session since April 2025, with oversold semis offering relief-bounce potential but no confirmation yet. Payrolls at 13:30 GMT is the catalyst that could flip things, with a clean print arguably helping stabilise sentiment. Watch 7,350 on the S&P 500, the five-day low, and keep position sizes tight into the release.