Daily Market Briefing — 06 April 2026

Market Recap

US equities edged higher on Friday to cap a strong week, with the S&P 500 adding 0.11% to close at 6,582.69 and the Nasdaq 100 matching that gain to finish at 24,045.53. The Dow Jones slipped 0.13% to 46,504.67, weighed by industrials. For the week, the S&P 500 soared nearly 6% as investors bet on a potential resolution to the Iran conflict. Friday's US jobs report showed employers added 178,000 positions in March — far more than the 59,000 expected — with unemployment ticking up to 4.3%.

Key Movers & Themes

Iran Ultimatum Dominates Sentiment: Trump's expletive-filled social media posts over the weekend vowed to bring Iran 'back to the Stone Age' and promised 'Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day' on Tuesday if the Strait of Hormuz deadline is missed. Reports of potential US-Iran ceasefire talks emerged Sunday, sending Brent crude above $110 before gains eased. Investors are now on tenterhooks heading into what could be the most consequential week of the conflict, with positioning split between deal optimism and escalation hedges.

Energy Volatility Ripples Through Markets: WTI oil surged 11.82% to $111.95 on Friday, while Brent added 1.03% to $110.15. A French-owned ship passed through the Strait of Hormuz late last week — the first major European firm to do so since the conflict began — signalling cautious reopening of critical shipping lanes. UBS warned that food costs could follow energy higher, with analysts flagging a potential 'food price shock' as soaring energy costs rattle supply chains.

Strong Jobs Data Complicates Fed Picture: Friday's blowout payrolls report — 178,000 jobs added versus 59,000 expected — has traders reassessing rate cut expectations. The data suggests the US economy is weathering the Iran conflict better than feared, but it also reduces urgency for the Fed to ease policy. Kevin Warsh's nomination for Fed chair is moving ahead in the Senate, setting up a potential collision course between Trump's competing Fed plans.

The Big Question

Can markets sustain last week's 6% rally if the Iran situation escalates? Bulls point to the strong jobs data and signs of diplomatic progress as evidence the economy can handle elevated oil prices. Bears counter that April is historically a strong month for stocks, but three factors now jeopardize the rebound: worries about Fed rate hikes, souring earnings expectations as Delta kicks off earnings season Wednesday, and the binary risk of Trump's Tuesday deadline. Warren Buffett struck a measured tone over the weekend, warning of lingering fragility in the banking system while downplaying recent market swings.

Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today

• 14:00 GMT — US ISM Services PMI (March): Forecast 55.0 vs 56.1 previous. This is the key release today. A miss could signal the Iran conflict is starting to weigh on the services sector, which has been remarkably resilient. Watch for the prices paid component — any spike would confirm inflation pressures from energy costs are filtering through.

Technical Levels to Watch

The S&P 500's 6,610 resistance is the level to watch for confirmation that last week's rally has legs.

Commodities & Currencies

WTI's 11.82% surge on Friday was the headline move, driven by Trump's weekend threats and supply concerns. Silver's 4.59% drop stands out as a risk-off signal despite broader equity strength. Sterling gained 0.33% against the dollar as UK benefit reforms took effect, with families on some benefits with three or more children set to receive an average rise of £4,100 a year as the two-child cap ends.

Trading Outlook

Neutral to cautiously bullish, but Tuesday's Iran deadline is the wildcard. If diplomatic progress continues, expect energy stocks to give back gains while broader indices push higher. The flip side: any escalation sends WTI toward $120 and triggers a sharp risk-off move. The ISM Services PMI at 14:00 GMT could be the catalyst that sets the tone for the week.