Daily Market Briefing — 05 November 2026

Market Recap

Wednesday belonged to the Dow, which closed at 53,356.12, up 3.03% and its best session since April 2025. The catalyst was a decisive Democratic sweep of the midterms, with Trump's quick move towards peacemaking adding fuel. The S&P 500 finished at 7,688.62 (+1.58%), while the NASDAQ 100 lagged at 28,437.17 (+0.91%) as chip stocks sold off on data-centre worries. Futures were mixed ahead of Thursday's open, so some of that momentum may be tested today.

Key Movers & Themes

Political repricing hits the AI trade. Democratic wins in Texas and other states raised long-term questions about the AI buildout, though analysts say this does not unwind projects already funded. Micron closed at $795.23 (-7.00%), Marvell at $159.80 (-7.08%), and Lam Research, KLA and Applied Materials all fell between 3% and 4%. Power names took a hit too: Constellation Energy dropped 6.71% as energy stocks slid, with some analysts warning of an excessive knee-jerk reaction.

Mega-cap tech and consumer names caught a bid. Microsoft jumped 6.68% to $555.80, Amazon rose 6.12% to $266.03 and Apple gained 5.31% to $349.51. Intuitive Surgical led the Dow with a 9.38% gain, while Booking Holdings (+9.83%) and DoorDash (+8.33%) topped the Nasdaq 100.

Oil slides. Brent fell to $93.98 and WTI to $86.96, helping underpin the broader rally. Euro zone inflation, meanwhile, hit 4% for the first time in three years, driven by energy inflation above 20%, and a rate hike there is looming.

The Big Question

Is the midterm rally sustainable? Bulls point to the Dow's breadth, falling oil and a more conciliatory White House. Bears note that a potential debt-ceiling confrontation could bring spending concessions and volatility, and that semiconductor weakness suggests the AI trade is being repriced. With futures mixed, today's follow-through matters.

Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today

• 12:00 GMT, UK: Bank of England interest rate decision (forecast 4%). Most analysts expect a hike from 3.75%, the first in over three years. This is the day's key event, and the MPC vote split (forecast 7 hike, 2 unchanged, 0 cut) will shape the tone.
• 07:45 GMT, France: Industrial Production MoM (forecast 0.3%, previous -0.3%)
• 09:30 GMT, UK: S&P Global Construction PMI (forecast 46.1)
• 13:30 GMT, US: Initial Jobless Claims (forecast 196K, previous 194K)
• 13:30 GMT, US: Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Prel (forecast 2.8%, previous 1.4%)

Technical Levels to Watch

NVDA's Classic S1 at 197.68 is the level to watch in the chip complex, as the stock sits below all its EMAs with RSI at 34.6. Breadth is split: among the Nasdaq 100 names scanned, 8 are bullish on EMAs versus 7 bearish, and the Dow names show 7 bullish versus 8 bearish. Three Nasdaq stocks are oversold (MRVL, LRCX, FTNT), and MACD shows 7 bullish crossovers versus 13 bearish in the Nasdaq group, a cautious read beneath the headline rally.

Commodities & Currencies

Brent's 9.29% drop to $93.98 is the standout and sits near its 5-day low of $93.40, while WTI is also close to its own low of $86.65. Silver jumped 6.39% to $52.76 near its 5-day high, with gold up 1.59% to $4,137.90. Cable climbed 0.89% to 1.3498, and sterling hit its highest level against a basket of currencies since the Brexit referendum, ahead of today's BoE decision.

Trading Outlook

Our bias is cautiously bullish on US indices after a broad Wednesday rally, but the AI and chip complex is the weak spot, with futures mixed. The BoE decision at noon is the catalyst that could flip sterling and risk sentiment, and a hold instead of the expected hike would likely jolt GBP/USD from near 1.35. Keep position sizing sensible around the 12:00 GMT announcement and watch NVDA's 197.68 support for a read on the semiconductor trade.