Daily Market Briefing — 05 August 2026

Market Recap

Tuesday's session delivered a powerful risk-on rally as Wall Street shrugged off recent volatility to post its 25th record close of 2026 for the S&P 500 — the first in 42 days. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 led the charge with a 3.32% surge, driven by semiconductor strength and renewed AI optimism following SpaceX's first earnings report since its IPO, which showed soaring revenues despite hefty AI infrastructure spending. Asian markets followed suit overnight, with SoftBank jumping 10% as regional tech stocks tracked Wall Street's AI-fuelled rally.

Key Movers & Themes

Semiconductors Ignite Tech Rally: Marvell Technology surged 12.81% to close at $218.60, leading a broad-based chip rally. Lam Research gained 7.85%, Micron Technology climbed 7.67%, and KLA Corporation added 6.95%. Qualcomm jumped 7.32% within the Dow constituents, while AMD rose 7.00% and Broadcom gained 6.61%. The moves came as investors piled into bullish options bets, chasing the runaway rebound and pushing the sector even higher.

Hormuz Tensions Ease, Oil Plunges: WTI crude fell 6.61% to $75.03 and Brent dropped 6.08% to $78.68 after US officials signalled a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was close. US Central Command confirmed the southern route remains free and open, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated talks had progressed to allow shipments to resume. President Trump warned Iran would be hit very hard if the strait doesn't open soon, but the diplomatic progress was enough to trigger a sharp sell-off in energy markets.

Precious Metals Shine: Gold surged 4.74% to $4,224.80 and silver rallied 7.13% to $61.78 as investors sought safe-haven assets despite the equity rally. The moves suggest underlying caution about geopolitical risks and inflation dynamics, even as risk appetite returned to stock markets.

Chart of the Day

Microsoft is testing a critical breakout level at $492.81, up 1.06% on Tuesday. The stock is now trading above all three key exponential moving averages (EMA20 at $418.19, EMA50 at $406.25, EMA200 at $423.68) with an RSI of 79.0 — firmly in overbought territory. The classic pivot point sits at $490.47, with first resistance at $501.78 and second resistance at $510.74. A confirmed break above $502 would open the door to a run toward $520, but the overbought RSI warns that a pullback to the $481-$490 zone could come first. The MACD shows a bullish crossover above the signal line and zero line, confirming upward momentum. This is a textbook momentum setup — but one that's stretched and vulnerable to profit-taking.

Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today

• 14:00 GMT — US ISM Services PMI (Jul): Forecast 54.5 vs 54.0 prior. This is the day's marquee release. A beat would confirm the services sector remains resilient despite manufacturing weakness, supporting the soft-landing narrative. A miss could reignite recession fears and trigger profit-taking after Tuesday's rally.
• 12:15 GMT — US ADP Employment Change (Jul): Forecast 70k vs 98k prior. A sharp slowdown in private payrolls would raise concerns ahead of Friday's NFP report and could weigh on risk appetite.
• 14:30 GMT — EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Jul/31): Forecast -1.5M vs -7.167M prior. With oil already down sharply on Iran deal hopes, inventory data could add volatility to energy markets.
• 06:45 GMT — France Industrial Production MoM (Jun): Forecast 0.3% vs -0.1% prior. A rebound would support the euro and European equity sentiment.
• 20:05 GMT — Fed Cook Speech: Any hawkish commentary on inflation could temper the rally, especially with the new Fed chair facing criticism over his inflation-fighting plan.

Technical Levels to Watch

The breadth picture is constructive but showing signs of overextension. Two stocks are overbought (RSI >70), while none are oversold. MACD signals show 15 bullish crossovers versus 5 bearish. For Dow constituents, the split is more balanced: 6 bullish, 7 bearish, 7 mixed on EMAs. Microsoft's overbought RSI of 79.0 and PayPal's 75.0 reading suggest near-term consolidation risk for momentum leaders. Watch the $501.78 resistance on MSFT and $224.80 on MRVL — breaks above would confirm continuation, but failures could trigger profit-taking across the tech complex.

Commodities & Currencies

The standout move was oil's sharp reversal on Iran deal optimism, with both WTI and Brent plunging over 6% as Hormuz reopening hopes mounted. Gold and silver surged despite the equity rally, with silver's 7.13% gain outpacing gold's 4.74% advance — a sign of both safe-haven demand and industrial metal strength. The dollar weakened across the board, with USD/JPY falling 1.60% to 157.63 as yen carry trades unwound slightly. Sterling and the euro both gained around 0.65% against the greenback, while Bitcoin edged 1.28% higher to $64,275.22, tracking risk-on sentiment.

Trading Outlook

The bias is cautiously bullish heading into Wednesday's session, but the rally is stretched and vulnerable to disappointment from the ISM Services PMI at 14:00 GMT. Microsoft and PayPal are flashing overbought RSI readings above 75, while the Nasdaq 100's 3.32% surge has left it extended above short-term moving averages. The catalyst that could flip sentiment is a weaker-than-expected services PMI print below 53.5, which would reignite soft-landing doubts and trigger profit-taking in overextended tech names. Watch the 7,700 level on the S&P 500 — a break below would signal the rally is losing steam and open the door to a test of 7,600 support. Manage risk accordingly into the data release.