Daily Market Briefing — 04 November 2026
Democrats now control both the House and the Senate, and Wall Street's first reaction was to sell. US stock futures slid overnight, Treasuries caught a bid, and the S&P 500 is sitting just above a level J.P. Morgan says could decide whether this pullback becomes a correction.
The S&P 500 edged up 0.36% to 7,568.92 on Tuesday, the NASDAQ 100 added 0.68% to 28,180.26, and the Dow slipped 0.38% to 51,786.72. That was a quiet session on the surface, but the real action came after the bell. Democrats flipped the Senate after winning the House, and stock futures fell as traders bet the result would slow the data centre buildout. Treasury yields dropped as investors crowded into bonds for safety.
The index sits only about 69 points above 7,500, the level a J.P. Morgan strategist flagged as a technical cliff. A break below it, he warns, would bring a sharp rise in selling pressure and volatility, potentially ending in a full-blown correction. Keep that in mind when the futures open in the red.
Key Movers & Themes
The AI trade is under political scrutiny. The futures sell-off was tied directly to bets that a Democratic Congress will slow data centre expansion. Yet earnings keep supporting the story. AMD is rising on what MarketWatch describes as real AI revenue and an upbeat forecast, while Super Micro popped on booming demand for AI servers.
Apple and Shopify disappointed. Apple fell nearly 2% on Tuesday as investors fretted over its gross margin outlook and slowing services revenue growth. Shopify slid after missing revenue expectations, a costly mistake in a less forgiving tech market. The AAPL scanner reading backs that up, with a bearish MACD crossover despite price still sitting above its key EMAs.
Labour data came in firm. September job openings jumped to 7.52 million, up 333,000 on August and well above the 7.15 million consensus. That is a decent warm-up for the payrolls report, and a reminder that bond buyers are fleeing politics, not weak data.
The Big Question
Is the midterm result a speed bump or a regime change for tech? Bulls point to AMD and Super Micro as proof that AI demand is real and indifferent to Washington. Bears argue that a Congress hostile to the data centre buildout, plus a Texas gubernatorial race already described as an AI trade headwind, adds a policy discount the market hasn't priced. Today's open should show which camp is winning.
Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today
- 10:00 GMT — EU Inflation Rate YoY Flash (Oct): forecast 4% vs 3.8% previous. A hotter print would complicate the European rate path.
- 10:00 GMT — EU Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash (Oct): forecast 2.5% vs 2.5% previous.
- 13:15 GMT — US ADP Employment Change (Oct): forecast 69 vs 90 previous.
- 15:00 GMT — US ISM Services PMI (Oct): forecast 54.8 vs 54.9 previous. This is the most important release of the day, as the services reading will test whether the firm JOLTS data is carrying through.
- 15:30 GMT — EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: forecast +1.75M vs -1.892M previous. Oil is moving violently, so it matters.
Technical Levels to Watch
| Stock | Close | Pivot | Support (S1 / S2) | Resistance (R1 / R2) | Cam S3 / R3 | RSI | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 343.83 | 344.84 | 342.51 / 341.18 | 346.17 / 348.50 | 342.82 / 344.84 | 56.1 | Bullish trend, MACD fading |
| MSFT | 531.01 | 530.72 | 526.43 / 521.86 | 535.29 / 539.58 | 528.57 / 533.45 | 56.1 | Bullish trend, MACD fading |
| GS | 925.17 | 922.67 | 915.65 / 906.12 | 932.20 / 939.22 | 920.62 / 929.72 | 54.1 | Neutral |
| CAT | 713.38 | 717.91 | 703.10 / 692.81 | 728.20 / 743.01 | 706.48 / 720.28 | 36.3 | Bearish |
| BA | 167.14 | 167.45 | 164.70 / 162.26 | 169.89 / 172.64 | 165.71 / 168.57 | 24.8 | Oversold |
| MU | 928.76 | 925.10 | 914.33 / 899.90 | 939.53 / 950.30 | 921.83 / 935.69 | 46.1 | Bearish |
| CRWD | 268.02 | 266.44 | 261.83 / 255.63 | 272.64 / 277.25 | 265.05 / 270.99 | 60.3 | Bullish |
| PANW | 401.70 | 398.24 | 391.71 / 381.72 | 408.23 / 414.76 | 397.16 / 406.24 | 58.4 | Bullish |
The scanner readings are dated 27 October, so treat them as structural reference points rather than fresh intraday levels. The standout is Boeing, whose RSI of 24.8 flags it as oversold, while Caterpillar and Micron have both lost their short-term EMAs. Breadth is healthier in the Nasdaq 100, where 11 of 20 stocks are bullish on EMAs against 7 bearish, and in the Dow, with 7 bullish against 3 bearish. MACD is the weak spot in the Nasdaq 100, with 12 bearish crossovers against 8 bullish, which fits a market that is rolling over beneath the surface.
Commodities & Currencies
| Instrument | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Oil | $96.45 | -$7.67 | -7.37% |
| Brent Oil | $104.11 | -$13.53 | -11.50% |
| Gold | $4,030.50 | +$90.10 | +2.29% |
| Silver | $51.65 | +$2.06 | +4.15% |
| Natural Gas | $2.900 | -$0.003 | -0.10% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3461 | +0.0133 | +1.00% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1233 | +0.0077 | +0.69% |
| USD/JPY | 158.13 | +0.30 | +0.19% |
| Bitcoin | $77,897.55 | +$1,220.25 | +1.59% |
Oil is the headline. Brent dropped more than 11% and WTI over 7%, though both still sit near $100 and above. Gold pushed up 2.29% to $4,030.50, near its 5-day high, as did silver at +4.15%, consistent with the flight to safety visible in Treasuries. Sterling jumped 1.00% against the dollar to 1.3461, close to its 5-day high.
Trading Outlook
Bias is cautious to bearish for US equities at the open. Futures are pointing lower, and the S&P 500 is only about 1% above the 7,500 level that J.P. Morgan flags as the line between a pullback and a correction. The one catalyst that could flip it is this afternoon's ISM Services PMI at 15:00 GMT; a strong print would support the firm labour picture and could steady buyers. Watch 7,500 on the S&P 500 closely, and size positions with the elevated volatility in mind.
This briefing is generated using AI analysis of market data and news feeds, reviewed by the ChartsView team. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making trading decisions.