Daily Market Briefing — 04 August 2026
US markets delivered a rip-roaring session on Monday, with the Dow closing at a record high and Amazon eclipsing $3 trillion in market cap for the first time. The S&P 500 surged 2.19% to 7,600.50 while the Nasdaq 100 jumped 2.39% to 28,776.80. But the real story is unfolding in oil markets — where Brent crude plunged 5.60% and WTI fell 4.06% — and in corporate earnings, where AI-driven growth is rewriting the playbook. Here's what UK traders need to watch as London opens.
Market Recap
Monday's US session was all about risk-on momentum. The Dow Jones climbed 1.86% to 53,178.41, notching a fresh record close, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posted their strongest gains in weeks. Amazon's milestone $3 trillion valuation provided the headline, but the rally had breadth — 16 of 30 Dow constituents closed higher, led by Boeing (+8.03%) and Microsoft (+4.93%).
Key Movers & Themes
AI Earnings Blowout: Palantir soared 12% after hours following a second-quarter earnings beat, with US commercial revenue surging nearly 150%. The AI software company lifted its full-year revenue guidance, underscoring the monetisation wave sweeping through enterprise AI. Snap also jumped 8% on strong sales forecasts, while Microsoft's rally — up nearly 5% on Monday — marks its best run in 26 years as capital spending finally shows a payoff.
Oil's Sharp Reversal: Brent crude fell 5.60% to $85.07 and WTI dropped 4.06% to $81.23, despite Saudi Aramco reporting a 33% jump in second-quarter profits driven by higher prices amid the Iran war. Analysts warn that threats to oil tankers in the Middle East are now at their worst levels since the conflict began, yet the market is pricing in demand concerns over supply risks. Natural gas edged up 0.65% to $2.78.
Analysts called the deal "odd," questioning the strategic rationale, but the speculation was enough to trigger a sharp sell-off in London's heavyweight pharma name.
The Big Question
The answer likely hinges on whether US momentum can offset UK-specific headwinds.
Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today
- 14:00 GMT — US JOLTs Job Openings (Jun): Forecast 7.45M vs 7.594M prior. This is the headline event. A softer print would ease Fed hawks and support risk assets, while a beat could reignite rate worries.
- 12:30 GMT — US Balance of Trade (Jun): Forecast -$73B vs -$77.6B prior. Watch for any impact from tariff disputes — 25 states have now sued the Trump administration over global tariffs affecting 60 trading partners.
- 14:00 GMT — US Factory Orders MoM (Jun): Forecast +0.2% vs -1.3% prior. A rebound here would support the industrial recovery narrative.
- 20:30 GMT — API Crude Oil Stock Change: Previous +3.296M barrels. After Monday's oil rout, inventory data takes on added significance.
Technical Levels to Watch
| Stock | Close | Pivot | Support (S1 / S2) | Resistance (R1 / R2) | Cam S3 / R3 | RSI | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | 487.65 | 484.77 | 477.88 / 468.12 | 494.53 / 501.42 | 483.07 / 492.23 | 78.3 | Overbought |
| AMZN | 284.02 | 283.07 | 278.95 / 273.87 | 288.15 / 292.27 | 281.49 / 286.55 | 72.2 | Overbought |
| BA | 233.49 | 228.93 | 223.77 / 214.05 | 238.65 / 243.81 | 229.40 / 237.58 | 61.8 | Bullish |
| JPM | 352.64 | 353.03 | 350.45 / 348.25 | 355.23 / 357.81 | 351.33 / 353.95 | 61.1 | Bullish |
| AAPL | 303.42 | 305.93 | 300.05 / 296.69 | 309.29 / 315.17 | 300.88 / 305.96 | 40.3 | Weak |
Commodities & Currencies
| Instrument | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Oil | $81.23 | -$3.44 | -4.06% |
| Brent Oil | $85.07 | -$5.05 | -5.60% |
| Gold | $4,117.10 | +$68.00 | +1.68% |
| Silver | $59.16 | +$1.57 | +2.73% |
| Natural Gas | $2.780 | +$0.018 | +0.65% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3425 | +0.0138 | +1.04% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1510 | +0.0123 | +1.08% |
| USD/JPY | 157.69 | -2.49 | -1.55% |
| Bitcoin | $63,767.57 | +$285.57 | +0.45% |
Oil's collapse dominated commodity flows despite ongoing Middle East supply risks. Gold climbed 1.68% to $4,117.10 and silver jumped 2.73% to $59.16 as haven demand returned. Sterling surged 1.04% to 1.3425 against the dollar, while the euro gained 1.08% to 1.1510. The yen strengthened 1.55% to 157.69 per dollar amid reports that US Treasury Secretary Bessent sought Fed help in defending the Japanese currency — an unusual move signalling coordinated intervention concerns.
Trading Outlook
The setup favours cautious bulls: US momentum is strong, but overbought conditions and the 14:00 GMT JOLTs print could trigger profit-taking. Watch oil's reaction to inventory data tonight — a stabilisation above $82 WTI would ease pressure on energy names. Risk management is key with RSI extremes across mega-cap tech.
This briefing is generated using AI analysis of market data and news feeds, reviewed by the ChartsView team. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making trading decisions.