Daily Market Briefing — 03 November 2026

Market Recap

Monday was a one-way street for tech. The Nasdaq-100 closed down 1.39% at 27,989.82, brushing the bottom of its five-day range (27,967.44), as the October "tech wreck" rolled into November and the index slipped into its third correction this year amid mounting AI worries. The S&P 500 followed, easing 0.51% to 7,541.40, just above its five-day low of 7,527.56. The Dow was the outlier, finishing 0.41% higher at 51,983.98, a clear sign that money is rotating away from the AI darlings and into the unloved. Futures are flat this morning as traders digest Apple's results and brace for the midterms.

Key Movers & Themes

Apple stumbles on margins. Apple fell after a weak margin forecast in Ternus' first earnings report. iPhone demand remains strong, but a worsening memory crunch and slowing services growth spooked investors.

Palantir: great quarter, sceptical market. Commercial revenue jumped 148% to $984 million, topping government revenue of $953 million for the first time. Even so, the stock is down, with some analysts uneasy at a deceleration in US commercial contract growth.

Marvell's merger gets a hostile reception. Shares of both Marvell and Lumentum fell after Marvell announced an all-stock deal to buy Lumentum, with shareholders on both sides panning the terms.

The Big Question

Is this correction a buying opportunity or the start of something worse? The bulls point out that the S&P 500 has gone nowhere for five months and its forward P/E now sits below its five-year and 10-year averages. The bears note that leveraged dip-buyers were burned last month, and Wall Street's most hated stocks are outperforming its favourites, hardly the signature of a healthy AI-led rally.

Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today

• US, 00:00 GMT — Midterm Elections (high impact): The main event. JPMorgan notes elections are historically positive for stocks, but a blue wave, a Republican hold or a split Congress each carry different implications for the market.
• US, 15:00 GMT — JOLTs Job Openings (Sep): forecast 7.13, previous 7.079.
• US, 15:00 GMT — Factory Orders MoM (Sep): forecast 1.2%, previous 0.1%.
• US, 21:30 GMT — API Crude Oil Stock Change (Oct/30): previous -2.031.

Technical Levels to Watch

Boeing is the stand-out extreme: an RSI of 24.8 puts it deep in oversold territory and it is the only Dow stock below 30. Note that this scanner data is dated 27 October, so treat the pivots as reference zones rather than live levels. The breadth picture is mixed: 11 of 20 Nasdaq-100 names are bullish on EMAs against 7 bearish, while 7 of 15 Dow stocks are bullish. On MACD, 12 of the 20 Nasdaq-100 names show bearish crossovers while 10 of 15 Dow names are bullish, matching the growth-to-value rotation seen in yesterday's index moves.

Commodities & Currencies

Oil firmed again, with Brent up 1.64% to $106.49, as reports emerged of US strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island. Ryanair has already warned that fuel costs could add €2bn to its bill in 2028 unless the US-Israel war with Iran ends. Precious metals were sold, with silver down 2.98% and gold off 1.10%, while sterling gained 0.80% against the dollar to 1.3412. Bitcoin slid 2.29% as the record $6.3bn Binance hack continues to weigh; North Korea has denied involvement and users have withdrawn $3.6bn from the exchange.

Trading Outlook

Our bias is cautiously bearish for the Nasdaq-100 while it sits on its five-day low of 27,967.44; a sustained break below that level would open the way to a deeper correction, while the S&P 500's 7,527.56 low is the equivalent line in the sand. The midterm result is the catalyst that could flip sentiment, and with oil near $98 WTI and geopolitics in play, keep position sizes disciplined and expect headline-driven swings into the 15:00 GMT JOLTs release.