Daily Market Briefing — 03 March 2026
Markets face heightened volatility as the US-Iran conflict enters its fourth day, with WTI crude surging +11.64% to $72.80 and Brent up +12.96% to $79.92 following threats to Gulf shipping. US equity futures tumbled overnight though major indices closed Monday's session with modest gains, led by the Nasdaq 100 at +1.15%.
Market Recap
US markets showed resilience Monday despite escalating Middle East tensions, with the Nasdaq 100 leading gains at +1.15% to close at 24,992.60, while the S&P 500 added +0.64% to 6,881.62 and the Dow Jones gained +0.21% to 48,904.78. Historical precedent around geopolitical shocks held true, with traders positioning in defensive sectors.
Key Movers & Themes
- Energy sector surge: Chevron stock hit record highs as WTI crude jumped +11.64% and Brent +12.96% following Iran's threats to Gulf shipping and potential Strait of Hormuz disruption. US natural gas exporters positioned to benefit from potential European supply concerns.
- Defence stocks rally: South Korean defence stocks soared, with Hanwha Aerospace surging +25% while the broader Kospi fell -4%, leading Asian losses.
- Tech infrastructure vulnerability: Amazon Web Services reported drone strikes damaged three facilities in UAE and Bahrain, highlighting infrastructure risks during military conflicts. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman faced backlash over a Pentagon deal, admitting it "looked opportunistic and sloppy".
Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today
- 10:00 GMT [EU] — Inflation Rate YoY Flash (Feb): Forecast 1.7%, Previous 1.7%. Core inflation also due at 2.2% forecast vs 2.2% previous.
- 10:30 GMT [UK] — Spring Economic Statement: Chancellor to address fiscal outlook amid rising energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty.
- 14:55 GMT [US] — Fed Williams Speech: Markets watching for commentary on inflation risks from energy price surge.
- 16:55 GMT [US] — Fed Kashkari Speech: Further Fed guidance expected as Trump declares inflation tamed despite new price pressures from Iran conflict.
- 21:30 GMT [US] — API Crude Oil Stock Change (Feb 27): Previous 11.4M barrels, critical data given current oil price volatility.
Technical Levels to Watch
| Instrument | Support | Resistance |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,840 / 6,795 | 6,950 / 7,000 |
| NAS100 | 24,710 / 24,575 | 25,345 / 25,500 |
| US30 | 48,805 / 48,380 | 49,815 / 50,000 |
Commodities & Currencies
| Instrument | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Oil | $72.80 | +$7.59 | +11.64% |
| Brent Oil | $79.92 | +$9.17 | +12.96% |
| Gold | $5,317.60 | +$141.10 | +2.73% |
| Silver | $84.38 | -$2.62 | -3.02% |
| Natural Gas | $3.040 | +$0.210 | +7.71% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3363 | -0.0134 | -0.99% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1673 | -0.0102 | -0.87% |
| USD/JPY | 157.22 | +1.34 | +0.86% |
| Bitcoin | $68,093.92 | +$2,212.12 | +3.36% |
Energy markets dominated Monday's session, with crude oil posting double-digit gains on threats to Gulf shipping and potential Strait of Hormuz blockade. Gold rallied +2.73% to $5,317.60 on safe-haven demand, while the dollar strengthened against major currencies as risk-off sentiment prevailed. Natural gas jumped +7.71% on European supply concerns. Analysts warn oil prices could move higher still if Iran targets Persian Gulf energy infrastructure and the Strait closure is prolonged, with knock-on effects expected for fuel and food prices.
Trading Outlook
Markets remain vulnerable to headline risk as the US-Iran conflict enters day four, with the U.S. embassy in Riyadh hit by drones and Trump promising a response "soon". Energy and defence stocks offer tactical opportunities, but broader equity upside is capped until geopolitical clarity emerges — watch for any signs of de-escalation or further supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
This briefing is generated using AI analysis of market data and news feeds, reviewed by the ChartsView team. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making trading decisions.