Daily Market Briefing — 03 July 2026

Market Recap

US markets delivered a split verdict on Thursday as weak employment data triggered a rotation out of technology and into defensive sectors. The S&P 500 slipped 0.21% to close at 7,483.24, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.61% to 29,329.21 as semiconductor stocks bore the brunt of selling. The Dow Jones bucked the trend, rising 1.14% to a fresh record at 52,900.07, powered by industrials and financials.

Key Movers & Themes

Jobs Data Misses, Labour Force Shrinks: US nonfarm payrolls rose just 57,000 in June, well below the 115,000 forecast, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.2% from 4.3%. The decline wasn't a positive — labour force participation fell to its lowest level in 50 years outside the Covid era as job seekers gave up. The data confirms the World Cup hospitality boom has faded, with those jobs declining in June despite early tournament optimism.

Tech Rout Deepens: Tesla shares sank 7.5% despite delivering a strong quarterly deliveries report, posting its worst day in nearly a year as investors continued to punish the stock amid consumer backlash against CEO Elon Musk. Semiconductor stocks led the decline, with KLA Corporation down 11.51% to 235.60, Lam Research off 10.19% to 351.40, and Marvell Technology falling 9.84% to 245.30. Micron Technology dropped 5.49% to 975.60 as the chip rotation accelerated.

Trump Blasts Fed, Buys Tech Dip: President Trump defended his business dealings in an exclusive interview while criticising the Federal Reserve as "hostile" and saying new Fed Chair Warsh "has to do what he has to do" on interest rates. Separately, disclosure forms revealed Trump bought shares in Apple, Nvidia and other tech giants the day before his tariff reversal fueled a market rebound — one of his busiest trading days of 2025.

Chart of the Day

The Nasdaq 100 is testing a critical support zone at 29,000 after breaking below its 20-day EMA. The index closed at 29,329.21, just above the psychological 29,000 level, with the classic pivot point at 29,809 now acting as overhead resistance. A break below 28,890 — the five-day low — would confirm a deeper correction and open the door to 28,500. Conversely, a reclaim of 30,000 would signal the dip-buyers are back in control. Today's shortened session ahead of the July 4th weekend will be critical in determining which way this resolves.

Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today

• 06:45 GMT — France Industrial Production MoM (May): Forecast -0.4% vs previous 0.1%. French manufacturing data could weigh on euro sentiment if the contraction deepens.
• 08:00 GMT — ECB President Lagarde Speech: Any hints on the September policy path will move European bond markets and the euro.
• 15:00 GMT — BoE Governor Bailey Speech: Bailey's comments on inflation and growth will be scrutinised for clues on the August rate decision, especially with oil prices volatile.

The BoE speech is the standout event — with sterling up 1.27% to 1.3365 against the dollar, any dovish tilt could trigger profit-taking.

Technical Levels to Watch

The 298 support level on Apple is critical — it's held twice this week and sits just below the classic pivot S1 at 298.40. MACD signals are evenly split with 10 bullish and 10 bearish crossovers. Palo Alto Networks is flashing overbought at an RSI of 78.5, suggesting a pullback may be due.

Commodities & Currencies

Precious metals rallied as safe-haven flows intensified, with silver surging 3.54% to $62.79 and gold adding 1.71% to $4,182.90. Oil prices fell on demand concerns, with WTI down 2.26% to $69.15 — diesel has seen its biggest monthly fall in 26 years as hopes of lasting peace in the Middle East grow following the US-Israel-Iran conflict. Sterling powered higher, gaining 1.27% to 1.3365 against the dollar, while Bitcoin climbed 2.70% to $61,623.29 despite millions of crypto investors sitting on losses in a painful bear market.

Trading Outlook

Neutral to slightly bearish into the long weekend. US markets close early today (1pm ET) and remain shut Monday for Independence Day, so liquidity will be thin and volatility muted. The key risk is whether tech stocks can stabilise above their five-day lows — if the Nasdaq 100 breaks 28,890, expect a deeper correction next week. Watch the BoE speech at 3pm GMT for any sterling volatility, and keep stops tight ahead of the holiday.