Daily Market Briefing — 02 March 2026
Markets open the week in risk-off mode as U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei send oil surging over 8% and equity futures tumbling, with Dow futures down 300+ points in pre-market trading.
Market Recap
U.S. equity futures plunged in overnight trading following the escalation of the Iran conflict over the weekend. Dow futures dropped over 300 points as the U.S.-Israel joint military operation — dubbed "Operation Epic Fury" — entered its third day. European stocks are set to open firmly in negative territory, while Asian airline stocks fell sharply even as energy shares rallied. Specific closing levels for Friday's session were not available in today's feeds.
Key Movers & Themes
- Oil spike: U.S. crude oil jumped more than 8%, topping $72 per barrel, with WTI futures at $72.52 and Brent at $79.04 on fears of supply disruption from Iran, OPEC's fourth-largest producer
- Strait of Hormuz risk: Traffic through the critical energy chokepoint has dropped off amid warnings from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, threatening global energy supplies
- Defence sector strength expected: U.S. defence stocks likely to benefit from the conflict, supported by a massive backlog of maintenance and software contracts ensuring recurring revenue
- AI disruption concerns: Jefferies identified a basket of "AI risk" stocks including MongoDB and Robinhood that face potential disruption as AI technology develops
Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today
- 15:00 GMT — US ISM Manufacturing PMI (HIGH) — Consensus 51.7, previous 52.6. Tests whether January's surprise return to expansion has legs. First expansion in 26 months last month.
- 09:30 GMT — UK Mortgage Approvals (Medium) — Housing market health indicator
- 14:00 GMT — ECB President Lagarde Speech (Medium) — Watch for signals on rate path after January's below-target 1.7% CPI print
- Key this week: ISM Services (Wed), ADP Employment (Wed), Fed Beige Book (Wed), Nonfarm Payrolls (Fri) — the heavyweight trifecta ahead of March 18-19 FOMC meeting
Note: Given the Iran conflict escalation, scheduled data releases may take a back seat to geopolitical developments and oil price moves.
For the full economic calendar, visit chartsview.co.uk/economic-calendar
Technical Levels to Watch
| Instrument | Support | Resistance |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,720 / 6,504 | 6,863 / 6,970 |
| NAS100 | 24,380 / 24,150 | 25,070 / 25,450 |
| US30 | 48,345 / 47,835 | 48,870 / 49,900 |
Commodities & Currencies
| Instrument | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Oil | $71.95 | $+6.53 | +9.98% |
| Brent Oil | $78.37 | $+7.52 | +10.61% |
| Gold | $5,406.30 | $+199.90 | +3.84% |
| Silver | $95.72 | $+4.78 | +5.25% |
| Natural Gas | $2.981 | $+0.012 | +0.40% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3404 | -0.0093 | -0.69% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1741 | -0.0053 | -0.45% |
| USD/JPY | 156.92 | +2.28 | +1.48% |
| Bitcoin | $66,262.91 | $-1,190.86 | -1.77% |
Oil prices surging with WTI +10.0% and Brent +10.6% amid heightened geopolitical risk and supply disruption fears. Gold rallying +3.8% to $5,406.30 on safe-haven demand. Dollar strengthening with GBP/USD at 1.3404 (-0.69%) and EUR/USD at 1.1741 (-0.45%).
Trading Outlook
Risk-off sentiment dominates as markets grapple with geopolitical uncertainty and energy supply fears, with Iran security chief Ali Larijani rejecting U.S. talks and blaming Trump for "chaos". The key pivot will be any signs of de-escalation or further Iranian retaliation, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz — watch energy and defence sectors for continued strength while broad equity indices face downward pressure.
This briefing is generated using AI analysis of market data and news feeds, reviewed by the ChartsView team. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making trading decisions.