Daily Market Briefing — 02 April 2026

Market Recap

US markets closed Wednesday with modest gains that quickly evaporated in after-hours trading as President Trump's Iran speech disappointed investors hoping for signs of conflict resolution. The S&P 500 added 0.72% to close at 6,575.32, while the NASDAQ 100 climbed 1.18% to 24,019.99 and the Dow Jones edged up 0.48% to 46,565.74. Trump's address confirmed expectations of two to three more weeks of military operations, with the president stating the US would hit Iran 'extremely hard' in coming weeks — a message that sent Asian markets and US futures lower overnight.

Key Movers & Themes

Energy Sector Dominance: Oil stole the show on Wednesday, with WTI crude jumping 5.48% to $105.61 and Brent surging 6.56% to $107.80 as Iran established what amounts to a toll booth in the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has created a de facto safe shipping corridor in the northern part of the strait, effectively monetising its grip over the critical waterway through which a significant portion of global oil supply flows. The RAC reported that March saw the fastest monthly rise in UK fuel prices on record in pence per litre terms, and cruise lines are already considering fuel surcharges for future bookings.

Tech Sector Divergence: While the NASDAQ posted solid gains, not all tech names participated equally. Oracle began cutting jobs on Tuesday from its planned 30,000 workforce reduction, with many workers receiving termination emails first thing in the morning. Meanwhile, SpaceX filed confidential IPO paperwork targeting a valuation around $1.75 trillion, setting the stage for what could be one of the most valuable public offerings in history and potentially making Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire. The listing could come as soon as June.

EV Demand Surprise: Various car selling platforms reported a sharp increase in consumer interest for electric vehicles since the Middle East crisis began, an ironic twist as major automakers have been pivoting back toward combustion engines. The surge in petrol prices appears to be accelerating the cost-benefit calculation for UK consumers considering the switch to electric.

The Big Question

Can the Bank of England cut rates with oil above $100? That's the dilemma facing policymakers as energy-driven inflation risks collide with weakening growth signals. The Bank has already warned that higher energy prices could push up borrowing costs for 1.3 million homeowners, while Chancellor Rachel Reeves indicated that energy bill support based on household income won't arrive until autumn at the earliest. Hawks will point to March's record fuel price surge as evidence that inflation risks remain elevated; doves counter that the consumer is already buckling under the weight of higher bills, with minimum wage rises doing little to offset the squeeze.

Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today

• 01:00 GMT — US President Trump Speech (HIGH): Another address from Trump could move markets if he signals any shift in Iran strategy or timeline.
• 12:30 GMT — Initial Jobless Claims (Mar/28): Forecast 212k vs 210k previous. A clean read on labour market health amid broader economic uncertainty.
• 12:30 GMT — Balance of Trade (Feb): Expected to widen to -$59.2bn from -$54.5bn, reflecting the impact of tariffs and shifting global trade flows.
• 15:00 GMT — Fed Logan Speech: Any commentary on inflation risks from energy prices will be closely parsed for clues on the Fed's rate path.

The jobless claims print matters most today — it's the freshest labour market data we'll get before Friday's non-farm payrolls, and any surprise could shift expectations for Fed policy in the months ahead.

Technical Levels to Watch

For the S&P, the 6,610 resistance from the 5-day high is the line in the sand.

Commodities & Currencies

Oil's surge dominated commodity markets, with both WTI and Brent posting their strongest single-day gains in months on supply disruption fears. Precious metals sold off sharply as investors rotated into energy — gold dropped 3.44% while silver fell 7.21%, suggesting traders are prioritising inflation hedges tied directly to the energy shock over traditional safe havens. Sterling weakened 0.90% against the dollar as UK growth concerns intensified, while Bitcoin's 2.38% decline reflected broader risk-off sentiment in after-hours trading.

Trading Outlook

Neutral to bearish bias into the London open, with geopolitical risk premium now firmly embedded in oil prices but equity markets struggling to price in the stagflation implications. The catalyst that flips this script is simple: any credible signal of Iran conflict de-escalation would trigger immediate profit-taking in energy and a relief rally in equities. Stay alert around 12:30 GMT when US data hits; a hot jobless claims number could compound the bearish tone.