Daily Market Briefing — 01 April 2026

Market Recap

US markets delivered a powerful rally on Tuesday as President Trump's comments about ending the Iran conflict within weeks sparked a risk-on surge. The S&P 500 closed up 2.91% at 6,528.52, while the NASDAQ 100 jumped 3.43% to 23,740.19 and the Dow Jones gained 2.49% to 46,341.51. The move marked a sharp reversal for indices that had endured their worst first quarter since 2022, with the S&P 500 still down significantly year-to-date despite Tuesday's bounce. Asian markets extended the rally overnight, with South Korea's Kospi leading gains as traders digested the potential for a de-escalation in the Middle East.

Key Movers & Themes

Iran War Exit Hopes Drive Risk Appetite: Trump's statement that US forces could leave Iran in two or three weeks triggered the strongest single-day rally in weeks. The President added there was no reason to continue the conflict, sending equity futures soaring globally. However, crude prices remained elevated despite the optimism, with Brent falling 12.61% on Tuesday to $103.43 after a record 64% surge in March.

Tech Sector Under Pressure Despite Rally: Microsoft closed its worst quarter since 2008 on AI concerns, losing almost a quarter of its value this year as investors reset the company's earnings multiple to the lowest level since late 2022. Oracle initiated significant job cuts, reportedly laying off thousands as the database giant frees up capital for AI investments. The moves highlight ongoing uncertainty in the tech sector despite Tuesday's broad market gains.

Silver's Historic Collapse: Silver shed almost 20% in March, marking its worst monthly performance since September 2011. The metal closed Tuesday at $74.80, up 6.36% on the day but still nursing deep wounds from the month's brutal sell-off. Gold, by contrast, gained 1.69% to $4,726.20, continuing its safe-haven bid.

The Big Question

Is the Iran rally sustainable or just a dead-cat bounce? Bulls point to Trump's clear signal of an exit strategy and the potential for oil prices to normalise, which would ease inflation pressures and support consumer spending. Bears counter that crude remains above $100, energy bills are surging, and the UK Chancellor has already warned that household energy support won't arrive until autumn. With US retail sales data due at 12:30 GMT and ISM Manufacturing PMI at 14:00 GMT, today's economic releases will either confirm the recovery narrative or expose it as premature.

Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today

• 12:30 GMT — US Retail Sales MoM (Feb): Forecast 0.5% vs -0.2% prior. This is the day's marquee release. A strong print would validate the soft-landing narrative; a miss would reignite recession fears.
• 14:00 GMT — ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar): Forecast 52.5 vs 52.4 prior. Manufacturing has held up better than expected, but rising energy costs could start to bite.
• 12:30 GMT — Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Feb): Forecast 0.3% vs 0.0% prior. The core measure strips out volatile auto sales and gives a cleaner read on consumer health.
• 14:30 GMT — EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Mar/27): Forecast +2.0M vs +6.9M prior. Inventory data will be closely watched given the ongoing volatility in energy markets.

The retail sales report is the clear focus. With US petrol prices topping $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022, consumers are feeling the squeeze. A weak number could quickly reverse yesterday's optimism.

Technical Levels to Watch

The S&P 500's 6,634 resistance level is critical today — it marks the 5-day high and represents the upper boundary of this week's range. A clean break above on strong retail sales data would confirm the bullish reversal. Failure to hold 6,344 support would suggest yesterday's rally was nothing more than a short-covering squeeze.

Commodities & Currencies

Brent crude's 12.61% plunge on Tuesday marked a dramatic reversal after March's record 64% surge, though prices remain elevated above $103. Natural gas fell 7.04% to $2.88 as traders bet on reduced geopolitical risk. Silver bounced 6.36% after its worst month in 15 years, while gold held firm at $4,726.20. Sterling slipped 0.79% against the dollar as the UK Chancellor confirmed energy bill support wouldn't arrive until autumn, dampening hopes for immediate consumer relief.

Trading Outlook

Cautiously bullish into the US retail sales data, but ready to flip bearish if the print disappoints. The 6,634 level on the S&P 500 is the line in the sand — hold above it and we could see follow-through to 6,700; fail and we're back testing 6,344 support. Trump's Iran exit comments have bought the bulls some breathing room, but with oil still above $100 and energy bills rising, the macro backdrop remains fragile. Watch 12:30 GMT closely and manage risk accordingly.