It's been a while since my last update on XEL but that's mainly because not a lot has changed until the last couple of days. There's talk of a possible 123-low breakout but I remain unconvinced (for now) that this indicates a trend reversal.[Not all 123-lows result in trend changes as all corrective moves (upward moves during a downtrend) should also feature a 123-low move]It's still my opinion the the whole move down from 127p looks bearish, with the today's move up to 106p possibly being a counter move (wave 2) to that down from 113p. It pretty much hit the 61.8% Fib of the last drop which is ideal for a wave 2 up.More important for me is to see what the RSI does. We can see that is closed bang on its downtrend resistance from the 127p high so I'll be looking to see if it reverses from...

No surprise that with the latest collapse in the price of physical gold the miners have followed suit. The daily chart on the left shows the bear flag and the subsequent drop in price.Note how there was a nice little backtest which should have been the entry to go short. The problem now is: where next? We have to go back to the monthly chart and 2002 to find the next support which is not far away now at 80p. This could coincide with gold getting down to the important $1156 mark which is also a significant support and should be a good place to go long. Original link...

Clearly, HOIL's last attempt to break out of its downtrend failed but it's having another go today.As before, I'm looking for the RSI to close above its downtrend resistance, preferably before the price actually breaks out. There's still a higher low in play so a breakout ought to follow through if it occurs from here. There was also an inside bar yesterday so there's a few things pointing towards a move here.I'll go long if it closes like this with a stop below the higher low of 127.5p. Original link...

If anyone ever has a doubt about the validity of Fib Extension's - I urge you to take a look at both the Gold Weekly and Daily chart for a start.I decided to take a look at Gold over the last 8 year or so. I took away all the support and resistance level's I had previously and decided to chart Fib extensions running from the low-high from mid 2005 until more recently in Sep 2011 - this is what I saw->   As you can see, there have been two key support area's so far from recent high's. It is absolutely no coincedance that these two levels are consistent with the first 2 Fib retracements. The recent break of the 1300 area would indicate that more low's are to come, with the next area (imo) being the 50% (and the 50% area is commonly referred to as one of the...

Having broken through 147p and 151p in the last few days, it seems to me that there are now 2 very clear possibilities here and they're polar opposites.On the left we have the bull option showing a truncated 5th wave of wave C (the move down from 260p). Factors supporting this view are the higher low, the trendline from 64p and 87p held again, 147p and 151p got taken out easily and the RSI backtested successfully. The other option (shown left) is quite bearish. This has the rise of the last couple of days as a subwave 2 up of the 5th wave down. This would target the 87p level for the low of wave C and that level has, rather controversially, been mooted before. Projections of the last couple of moves do also point to this level. For me, the key test here will be whether the 141p level...