Weekly Market Outlook — 31 August 2026

US indices closed mixed last week as Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole comments rattled tech whilst oil surged on renewed Iran tensions. This week, I'm watching whether US30 can hold the 53,260 floor and if NAS100 finds buyers at the 28,875 low — both critical for maintaining bullish structure into September.

Last Week in Review

Last week delivered a classic late-summer grind with US indices closing relatively flat despite intraday volatility. The S&P 500 gained 0.77% and the NASDAQ 100 added 1.41%, whilst the Dow Jones barely moved at +0.27%. Tech outperformed as growth names found support, but Friday's session turned choppy after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech raised the prospect of further rate hikes. Oil was the standout performer — WTI surged 4.07% and Brent climbed 3.03% as US-Iran tensions escalated following Trump's threats against Iran's Kharg Island oil hub. Gold pulled back 2.63% as the dollar firmed, and GBP/USD dropped 0.67% to close at 1.3547. The FTSE 100 edged down 0.28%, underperforming its US counterparts as UK traders remained cautious ahead of month-end.

US30 (Dow Jones) — Weekly Outlook

US30 (Dow Jones) Weekly Chart — EMA 9 (orange) & EMA 50 (blue) | Source: ChartsView

US30 closed the week at 53,559.99, effectively flat after testing both sides of a tight range. The weekly candle is a small-bodied doji, reflecting indecision — we pushed to a 5-day high of 53,819.65 mid-week before sellers stepped in and drove price back towards the 53,260 lows. That 53,260 level is now my key support for the week — it's the 5-day low and represents the floor of this consolidation. Above, I'm watching 53,819 as immediate resistance, with the psychological 54,000 level just beyond.

My bias is cautiously bullish if we hold above 53,260. The weekly close above 53,500 suggests buyers are still present, and if we can reclaim 53,819 early in the week, I'm looking for continuation towards 54,000-54,200. However, a break and close below 53,260 would invalidate this view and open the door to a deeper pullback towards 52,800. The Warsh comments have introduced uncertainty, so I'm not forcing anything — I need to see a clean break and retest of 53,819 before committing to longs. If we get choppy price action and fail to hold structure, I'll sit on my hands. Risk management is critical here — the range is tight, so stops need to be respected.

NAS100 (NASDAQ) — Weekly Outlook

NAS100 (Nasdaq 100) Weekly Chart — EMA 9 (orange) & EMA 50 (blue) | Source: ChartsView

NAS100 closed at 29,433.43, up 1.41% on the week, but Friday's late sell-off left a bearish wick on the daily chart. We hit a 5-day high of 29,752.78 before rejecting hard, and now we're sitting just above the 28,875 low — a level that absolutely must hold if bulls want to maintain control. That 28,875 zone is my line in the sand for the week.

I'm neutral-to-bullish here, but I need confirmation. If NAS100 holds above 28,875 and reclaims 29,640 (Friday's close), I'm looking for a push back towards 29,750 and potentially 30,000. However, the hawkish Fed rhetoric is a headwind for tech, and a break below 28,875 would signal a deeper correction is underway — likely targeting 28,500 or lower. I'm watching how we react to the 29,640 level early this week. A clean reclaim with volume and I'm interested in longs; a rejection and I'm stepping aside. The 5-day range was wide (28,875 to 29,752), so volatility is present — trade accordingly.

Quick Takes

S&P 500: Closed at 7,711.76, holding above the 7,638 5-day low — bullish structure intact if we stay above 7,730 and push for 7,771 resistance.

FTSE 100: At 10,824.26, consolidating in a tight range between 10,772 and 10,920 — watching for a breakout either side to define September's direction.

WTI Oil: Surged to 85.58 on Iran tensions — immediate resistance at 85.68 (5-day high), and a break above targets 87.00; support at 83.40.

Gold: Pulled back to 4,477.10 after testing 4,625 — now sitting at support; a hold here could set up a bounce, but a break below 4,445 opens 4,350.

GBP/USD: Dropped to 1.3547, testing the 1.3529 5-day low — bearish below 1.3638, watching for a breakdown or a bounce from current levels.

Key Events This Week

• Monday, 12:00 GMT — Germany Inflation Rate YoY Prel (Aug): Forecast 2.9% vs 2.8% prior. A hotter-than-expected print could strengthen the euro and add pressure to risk assets if it signals persistent eurozone inflation.
• Monday, 14:30 GMT — US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug): Previous 1.3. A weaker reading could weigh on the dollar and support indices, whilst a strong print reinforces the hawkish Fed narrative.
• This Week's Biggest Risk: The Germany inflation data is the key event — it's the first major data point of the week and could set the tone for European markets and the euro. A surprise to the upside would reignite ECB tightening fears and likely pressure equities.

The Week Ahead — My Game Plan

This week, I'm watching the 53,260 level on US30 and 28,875 on NAS100 as my key decision points. If both hold and we see reclaims of Friday's closes, I'm looking for continuation to the upside. However, the hawkish Fed backdrop and Iran tensions mean I'm not forcing trades — I need clear structure and confirmation before committing. If we break below those support levels, I'll step aside and wait for the next setup. As always, risk management comes first — tight stops, proper position sizing, and no hero trades. Let's see how the market opens and take it from there.