Weekly Market Outlook — 27 July 2026

Tech got hammered last week as NAS100 shed 3% and fresh tariff threats rattled sentiment, while the Dow held its ground and FTSE pushed higher. This week, I'm watching whether US indices can stabilise or if we're in for a deeper correction — the next 48 hours will be critical.

Last Week in Review

Last week was a tale of two markets. While the FTSE 100 climbed 2.01% to 10,736 and the Dow eked out a 0.21% gain to close at 51,947, US tech took a beating — NAS100 dropped 1.66% and the S&P 500 fell 0.42%. The catalyst was Trump's fresh tariff blitz targeting 60 trading partners, combined with profit-taking in overextended tech names. Oil collapsed nearly 5% as Iran signalled a pause in hostilities, whilst gold and silver held relatively firm despite a modest pullback. It was a risk-off rotation week, not a full market breakdown — yet.

US30 (Dow Jones) — Weekly Outlook

US30 (Dow Jones) Weekly Chart — EMA 9 (orange) & EMA 50 (blue) | Source: ChartsView

US30 closed the week at 51,947, down just 0.52% — a relatively constructive performance given the tech carnage. The weekly candle shows a small-bodied bear candle with wicks on both sides, suggesting indecision rather than conviction selling. Key support sits at the 5-day low of 51,542, with the previous close at 52,218 now acting as initial resistance. The 5-day high at 52,511 is the level I'm watching for any bullish reclaim.

My bias this week is cautiously neutral-to-bullish. If US30 can hold above 51,542 and reclaim 52,218, I'm looking for longs targeting a retest of 52,511 and potentially 53,000 if momentum builds. However, a break below 51,542 would invalidate this view and open the door to 51,000. The Dow's relative strength last week suggests institutional money is rotating into value and industrials — if that continues, we could see further outperformance. I'm waiting for a clear break and retest of 52,218 before committing to longs.

NAS100 (NASDAQ) — Weekly Outlook

NAS100 (Nasdaq 100) Weekly Chart — EMA 9 (orange) & EMA 50 (blue) | Source: ChartsView

NAS100 was the week's biggest loser, plunging 3% to close at 28,128 — a sharp rejection from the 5-day high of 29,192. This is a clear bearish engulfing weekly candle, and the break below the previous close at 28,998 confirms sellers are in control. Support now sits at the 5-day low of 28,053, with resistance at 28,998 and then 29,192.

My bias is bearish unless we see a strong reclaim above 28,998. Tech earnings this week will be critical — if the big names disappoint, we could easily see a flush toward 27,500. For now, I'm watching 28,053 closely. A breakdown there and I'm looking for shorts targeting 27,800. Any bounce into 28,998 resistance is a potential fade opportunity unless we get a decisive close above it. Tech is vulnerable here, and the tariff headlines aren't helping sentiment.

Quick Takes

S&P 500: Down 1.16% to 7,411, testing support at the 5-day low of 7,376 — a break here could accelerate selling toward 7,200.

FTSE 100: The week's outperformer at +2.01%, now at 10,736 — resistance at the 5-day high of 10,763, and if that breaks, 10,800 is in play.

Gold: Holding above 4,046 support despite a modest 0.62% weekly gain to 4,092 — watching for a break of 4,152 (5-day high) to signal fresh bullish momentum.

WTI Oil: Collapsed 4.94% to 84.90 on Iran ceasefire hopes — support at 83.10 (5-day low), and a break there could see a flush toward 80.00.

Key Events This Week

• Monday, 08:00 GMT — Germany Ifo Business Climate (Jul): Forecast 86.1 vs 85.6 prior. A beat could support European risk assets and lift the FTSE.
• Monday, 12:30 GMT — US Durable Goods Orders MoM (Jun): Forecast +1.6% vs -4.5% prior. This is the big one — a strong rebound could stabilise US indices, whilst a miss would confirm demand weakness.
• Monday, 12:30 GMT — US Durable Goods Orders Ex Transport MoM (Jun): Forecast +0.9% vs +1.3% prior. Core orders matter more for the Fed's growth outlook.
• Monday, 14:30 GMT — Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul): Previous 0. Regional Fed data has been mixed — watching for any surprises.

The US Durable Goods report is the week's highest-impact event. A strong print could spark a relief rally in beaten-down tech, whilst a miss would confirm the slowdown narrative and pressure indices further.

The Week Ahead — My Game Plan

This week, I'm watching for stabilisation or capitulation. US30 looks the strongest and could lead any bounce, whilst NAS100 remains vulnerable to further downside unless earnings deliver. I'm not chasing anything here — I want to see clear reclaims of key levels (52,218 on US30, 28,998 on NAS100) before committing to longs. If we break support zones, I'll look for shorts with tight stops. The Durable Goods data on Monday will set the tone — trade the reaction, not the prediction. As always, risk management comes first — no level is worth blowing your account over.