Weekly Market Outlook — 25 May 2026

Oil's collapse dominated last week as Iran peace talks sent crude tumbling over 10%, lifting risk appetite and pushing US indices to fresh highs. This week, I'm watching whether equities can hold these gains or if profit-taking kicks in ahead of the summer months.

Last Week in Review

Last week delivered a classic risk-on rally as hopes of a US-Iran peace deal sent oil prices into freefall — WTI down 10.36% and Brent off 9.95% — whilst equities surged across the board. The Dow Jones led the charge with a +1.80% weekly gain, closing at 50,579.70, whilst the NASDAQ 100 added 1.68% to finish at 29,481.64. The S&P 500 climbed 0.95% and even the FTSE 100 managed a respectable +1.38% despite UK-specific headwinds. It was a trending week, not a choppy one — lower energy costs fuelled optimism and buyers stayed in control throughout.

US30 (Dow Jones) — Weekly Outlook

US30 (Dow Jones) Weekly Chart — EMA 9 (orange) & EMA 50 (blue) | Source: ChartsView

US30 closed the week at 50,579.70, printing a strong bullish weekly candle and holding comfortably above the previous week's close of 50,285.66. The 5-day range was significant — a low of 49,235.74 and a high of 50,830.24 — showing volatility but ultimately resolving to the upside. Key support now sits at 50,285 (previous close) and 49,235 (5-day low), whilst resistance comes in at the 50,830 level, which capped last week's rally.

My bias this week is cautiously bullish. If US30 holds above 50,285 and reclaims 50,830, I'm looking for continuation towards the psychological 51,000 handle. However, this is a holiday-shortened week in the US (Memorial Day Monday), so liquidity could be thin and whipsaws are possible. A break and close below 50,285 would invalidate the bullish setup and open the door back to 49,500. I'm not chasing here — I want to see a clean hold of support before committing to longs. The oil-driven rally was sharp, and we could easily see some profit-taking before the next leg higher.

NAS100 (NASDAQ) — Weekly Outlook

NAS100 (Nasdaq 100) Weekly Chart — EMA 9 (orange) & EMA 50 (blue) | Source: ChartsView

NAS100 closed at 29,481.64, up 1.68% on the week, and printed a solid bullish candle with a 5-day high of 29,663.89 acting as immediate resistance. Support comes in at the previous close of 29,357.27 and the 5-day low of 28,567.16, which represents a significant zone if we see any pullback. Tech benefited from the risk-on move, but the rally felt broad-based rather than driven by any specific sector catalyst.

I'm neutral-to-bullish on NAS100 this week. A reclaim of 29,663 would signal continuation towards 30,000, but I'm mindful that we're trading near recent highs and momentum could stall. If we lose 29,357, I'd expect a deeper retracement towards 29,000. The key for tech is whether the lower oil narrative continues to support risk appetite or if we see rotation out of growth and into value. I'm watching the 29,500 level closely — hold above and I'm biased long, break below and I'm stepping aside.

Quick Takes

S&P 500: Closed at 7,473.47, up 0.95% — resistance at 7,506 (5-day high), support at 7,445 (previous close). Clean uptrend, watching for a break above 7,506 to confirm continuation.

Gold: Flat on the week at 4,523.20, consolidating in a tight range. Support at 4,465 (5-day low), resistance at 4,582 (5-day high). No strong directional bias — waiting for a breakout.

WTI Oil: Collapsed 10.36% to 96.60 on Iran peace hopes. Watching 90.32 (5-day low) as key support — a break there could accelerate the selloff. Oversold short-term, but the narrative remains bearish.

GBP/USD: Up 0.40% to 1.3486, testing resistance at 1.3490 (5-day high). A clean break above 1.3490 opens the door to 1.3550. Support at 1.3432 (previous close).

Key Events This Week

Note: Economic calendar data was not available at the time of writing. Key events to monitor independently include:

• US Memorial Day (Monday) — markets closed, expect thin liquidity Tuesday
• Any further developments on US-Iran peace negotiations — the biggest wildcard for oil and risk sentiment
• Fed speakers — watch for commentary on inflation and rate policy given recent oil price moves
• UK economic data releases — GDP revisions or PMI data could move the FTSE

The biggest risk this week remains geopolitical — any breakdown in Iran talks could reverse last week's oil selloff and hammer equities.

The Week Ahead — My Game Plan

I'm leaning bullish on US indices this week, but I'm not forcing trades into a holiday-shortened week with thin liquidity. My focus is on US30 above 50,285 and NAS100 above 29,357 — if those levels hold, I'm looking for continuation. If we lose them, I'm stepping aside and waiting for clearer structure. Oil's collapse was the story last week, but the real question is whether equities can digest these gains or if we see profit-taking into month-end. As always, risk management comes first — no level is worth blowing your account over, and there's always another setup around the corner.