Weekly Market Outlook — 24 August 2026

US indices closed mixed last week as tech sold off sharply whilst the Dow pushed higher, and precious metals surged on geopolitical tensions. This week, all eyes are on Nvidia earnings and Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech — both capable of shifting sentiment fast.

Last Week in Review

Last week delivered a classic risk-off rotation — the NASDAQ dropped 2.29% and the S&P 500 fell 0.91%, whilst the Dow managed to grind out a modest 0.34% decline. Gold and silver were the standout performers, rallying 4.66% and 4.93% respectively as Iran tensions escalated and bond market jitters continued. The FTSE 100 bucked the trend with a 0.90% gain, and both GBP/USD and EUR/USD pushed higher as the dollar weakened. It was a choppy, headline-driven week with clear sector divergence — tech underperformed whilst defensive plays and precious metals caught a bid.

US30 (Dow Jones) — Weekly Outlook

US30 (Dow Jones) Weekly Chart — EMA 9 (orange) & EMA 50 (blue) | Source: ChartsView

US30 closed at 53,277, down 0.34% on the week after testing the 5-day high at 53,710 and rejecting. The weekly candle shows indecision — a small-bodied bearish bar with wicks on both sides, suggesting neither bulls nor bears are in full control yet. Key support sits at the 5-day low of 52,754, with the previous close at 52,759 acting as a secondary floor. If that breaks, we could see a flush toward 52,000 psychological. Resistance is clear at 53,710 — that's the line in the sand for bulls this week.

My bias is cautiously bullish IF we hold above 52,750 and reclaim 53,300. A break and close above 53,710 opens the door to 54,000+. However, if we lose 52,750, I'm flipping bearish and looking for a retest of 52,000. The Dow's relative strength versus tech last week suggests institutional money is rotating into value, but we need confirmation. I'm watching Monday's open closely — if we gap down on Canada trade war headlines, that support zone becomes critical. Invalidation is simple: a daily close below 52,750 kills the bull case.

NAS100 (NASDAQ) — Weekly Outlook

NAS100 (Nasdaq 100) Weekly Chart — EMA 9 (orange) & EMA 50 (blue) | Source: ChartsView

NAS100 closed at 29,308, down 2.29% — the weakest of the major indices. The 5-day high at 30,195 was hit early in the week before sellers took control, and we've since consolidated above the 5-day low at 29,118. That low is now critical support. Resistance is layered: 29,500 minor, then 30,000 psychological, and 30,195 as the key level to reclaim for any bullish continuation.

My bias is neutral-to-bearish until we see how Nvidia earnings land on Wednesday. Tech got hit hard last week, and if Nvidia disappoints or guides cautiously, we could easily test 29,000 or lower. However, if they beat and the stock rips, NAS100 could reclaim 30,000 fast. I'm staying patient here — no directional bias until after Wednesday. If we break below 29,118, I'm looking for shorts targeting 28,500. If we reclaim 30,000 with conviction, longs toward 30,500 are back in play. This is a headline-driven setup, not a technical one.

Quick Takes

S&P 500: Closed at 7,674, down 0.91% — caught between 7,639 support and 7,790 resistance. Neutral until one breaks.

Gold: Absolute beast mode — up 4.66% to 4,698. Iran tensions and bond market chaos are fuelling safe-haven flows. Resistance at 4,713 (5-day high), but momentum suggests 4,800 is in play if geopolitics escalate further.

GBP/USD: Closed at 1.3644, up 0.69%. Clean break above 1.3550, now testing 1.3675 resistance. If Cable holds above 1.3600, I'm watching for a push toward 1.3700.

WTI Oil: Down 1.65% to 85.62 despite Iran sanctions talk. Support at 84.32 (5-day low) — if that breaks, 82.00 is next. Bearish bias unless geopolitics force a supply shock.

Key Events This Week

• Monday, 12:30 GMT — US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jul). Previous: -0.02. Minor data point, but any sharp deviation could shift sentiment early in the week.
• Wednesday (time TBC) — Nvidia Earnings. This is THE event. Nvidia is the heartbeat of the AI trade and the broader market. A beat could ignite tech; a miss could accelerate the selloff. Expect volatility across all indices.
• Friday (time TBC) — Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole Speech. His first major address since taking the role. Markets will parse every word for clues on rate policy and inflation outlook. This is the biggest macro risk event of the week.

The Nvidia earnings and Warsh speech are the two events capable of shifting the entire market narrative. Trade light ahead of both.

The Week Ahead — My Game Plan

I'm staying nimble this week — the macro backdrop is messy with Canada trade war escalation, Iran tensions, and two major risk events in Nvidia and Jackson Hole. My bias leans cautiously bullish on US30 if we hold 52,750, but I'm neutral on NAS100 until Wednesday's earnings give us direction. I'm not forcing trades into these events — I'd rather wait for confirmation and trade the reaction than try to predict the outcome. If you're holding positions over Nvidia or Jackson Hole, make sure your stops are tight and your position size is appropriate. This is a week to respect risk, not chase setups.