US tech continues to lead as NAS100 surged 2.6% last week, while the dollar flexed its muscles against sterling and the euro. This week, I'm watching whether US30 can finally break above 52,000 and hold, or if we're setting up for a rejection that brings sellers back into play.
Last Week in Review
Last week delivered a clear divergence: US indices pushed higher with NAS100 leading the charge at +2.6%, while the FTSE 100 slipped 0.65% and precious metals took a beating. Silver collapsed nearly 6%, gold dropped 2.93%, and the dollar strengthened across the board — GBP/USD fell 1.5% and EUR/USD shed 1.13%. The theme was risk-on in US equities, risk-off in commodities, with geopolitical developments around Iran and Fed commentary providing the backdrop. US30 gained a modest 0.71%, but the weekly candle shows indecision near all-time highs.
US30 (Dow Jones) — Weekly Outlook
US30 (Dow Jones) Weekly Chart — EMA 9 (orange) & EMA 50 (blue) | Source: ChartsView
US30 closed the week at 51,564.70, up 0.71%, but the weekly candle tells a story of hesitation. We tagged a 5-day high of 52,281.19 mid-week before pulling back — that level is now my key resistance. The 5-day low sits at 50,827.84, which I'm treating as initial support, with the previous close at 51,492.55 acting as a pivot. My bias this week is cautiously bullish above 51,400. If we reclaim 51,800 and hold it on a 4-hour close, I'm looking for longs targeting the 52,280 highs with extension toward 52,500. However, a break below 51,000 would invalidate this view and open the door to 50,800 and potentially 50,500. The setup I'm watching: a pullback into 51,400–51,500 with bullish rejection wicks, then a push back above 51,800. That's where I want to be a buyer. If we get a clean break of 52,280, we could see momentum accelerate into uncharted territory. Risk management is critical here — we're at elevated levels and any hawkish Fed rhetoric or geopolitical flare-up could trigger sharp reversals.
NAS100 (NASDAQ) — Weekly Outlook
NAS100 (Nasdaq 100) Weekly Chart — EMA 9 (orange) & EMA 50 (blue) | Source: ChartsView
NAS100 was the standout performer, closing at 30,406.19 after a 2.48% rally that saw it briefly touch 30,587.16 before Friday's pullback. The 5-day low at 29,220.83 is well defended, and the previous close at 29,670.95 now acts as support. I'm bullish above 30,000 — this is a psychological and technical level that's held well. If we consolidate here and push through 30,587, I'm targeting 31,000 as the next round number. The invalidation is clear: a break below 30,000 with follow-through under 29,670 would shift me neutral and bring 29,220 back into play. Tech earnings commentary and any AI-related news flow will be the catalyst here. The strength in NAS100 relative to US30 suggests sector rotation into growth is alive and well, and I want to be positioned with that momentum unless proven otherwise.
Quick Takes
S&P 500: Closed at 7,500.58, up 1.08% — holding above 7,420 keeps the bullish structure intact, with 7,577 as the level to reclaim for continuation toward 7,600.
FTSE 100: Underperforming at 10,363.27, down 0.35% — caught between 10,352 support and 10,570 resistance; I'm neutral until we break out of this range.
Gold: Down 0.48% to 4,203.80 after testing 4,377 — the 5-day low at 4,138.70 is critical support; below that and we could see 4,000 tested.
GBP/USD: Took a 1.5% hit to 1.3215 — the 5-day low at 1.3164 is the line in the sand; below that opens 1.3100, but I'm watching for a bounce if dollar strength eases.
Key Events This Week
- Monday, 13:00 GMT — Fed Waller Speech (US): Any commentary on the Fed's direction under the new regime could move indices, especially if he signals a shift in rate policy.
- Monday, 14:00 GMT — Consumer Confidence Flash (EU): Forecast -18 vs previous -19 — a beat could support euro strength and weigh on the dollar.
- Monday, 15:00 GMT — ECB President Lagarde Speech (EU): Watch for any hints on ECB policy amid geopolitical uncertainty and energy price volatility.
The biggest risk event is Fed Waller's speech — any hawkish tilt could derail the bullish momentum in indices, while dovish commentary could fuel another leg higher. Keep your risk tight around these time windows.
The Week Ahead — My Game Plan
I'm leaning bullish on US indices as long as we hold above the key pivots — 51,400 on US30 and 30,000 on NAS100. The divergence between tech strength and commodity weakness suggests risk appetite is still intact, but we're at levels where profit-taking can happen fast. I want to see follow-through above last week's highs before committing size, and I'll be watching Fed commentary closely for any curveballs. As always, respect your stops — these elevated levels can reverse violently, and preservation of capital is what keeps you in the game for the next setup.
Written by Remo, founder of ChartsView. This outlook reflects personal analysis and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.