Weekly Market Outlook — 20 April 2026

US indices delivered a powerful relief rally last week, with the NAS100 surging over 5% as geopolitical tensions showed signs of easing. This week, the focus shifts to earnings season heavyweights and whether bulls can hold the reclaimed ground above key psychological levels.

Last Week in Review

Last week was all about the bounce. US indices staged an impressive recovery, with the NASDAQ 100 leading the charge at +5.08%, followed by the S&P 500 at +3.48% and the Dow Jones at +2.55%. The FTSE 100 lagged significantly, managing just +0.80%, whilst oil markets saw violent moves — WTI collapsed -9.53% and Brent fell -4.79% as Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz would remain open during the ceasefire. The week's price action suggests risk appetite is returning, though the sharp intraday swings tell me traders are still nervous and quick to take profit.

US30 (Dow Jones) — Weekly Outlook

US30 (Dow Jones) Weekly Chart — EMA 9 (orange) & EMA 50 (blue) | Source: ChartsView

US30 closed the week at 49,447, printing a strong bullish engulfing candle that reclaimed the psychologically important 49,000 level. The 5-day range was massive — from a low of 47,505 to a high of 49,717 — which shows both the volatility and the conviction behind the rally. Key support now sits at 48,578 (previous close) and 47,505 (5-day low), whilst immediate resistance is the 49,717 swing high from last week.

My bias is cautiously bullish. If US30 holds above 48,500 and pushes through 49,717, I'm looking for continuation towards the 50,000 psychological level. The invalidation is clear: a break back below 48,000 would signal the rally is failing and likely bring sellers back in force. This week's earnings from Boeing and other industrials could be the catalyst either way. I'm watching for a pullback into the 48,500-49,000 zone for potential long entries, but only if we see bullish price action and hold of structure. Don't chase this — let it come to you.

NAS100 (NASDAQ) — Weekly Outlook

NAS100 (Nasdaq 100) Weekly Chart — EMA 9 (orange) & EMA 50 (blue) | Source: ChartsView

NAS100 was the star performer last week, closing at 26,672 after rallying over 5%. The index reclaimed 26,000 and briefly touched 26,719 before pulling back slightly. Support is now at 26,333 (previous close) and 24,999 (5-day low), with resistance at the 26,719 swing high.

I'm bullish above 26,000. Tech earnings this week — particularly Tesla — will be critical. If NAS100 holds above 26,300 and breaks 26,719, I'm targeting the 27,000 round number. The risk is a failed breakout and rejection back into the 25,000s, which would suggest the rally was just a short squeeze. Watch for how price reacts at current levels — if we get a healthy consolidation rather than a sharp reversal, that's bullish continuation behaviour. Invalidation comes on a daily close below 26,000.

Quick Takes

S&P 500: Closed at 7,126, up 3.48% for the week and holding above the key 7,000 psychological level — bullish structure intact as long as we stay above 7,041.

WTI Oil: Brutal collapse from 94.69 to 82.59 (-12.78%) as ceasefire hopes killed the war premium — watching 80.56 (5-day low) as support; break below could accelerate selling towards 75.00.

Gold: Relatively quiet at 4,813, up just 0.58% — consolidating after the recent surge, with support at 4,767 and resistance at 4,879.

GBP/USD: Slight pullback to 1.3497 (-0.13%) after testing 1.3599 — cable looks heavy; watching for a break of 1.3476 (5-day low) which could open 1.3400.

Key Events This Week

• Monday, 06:00 GMT — Germany PPI (Mar): Previous -3.3% YoY. Deflationary pressures in Europe's largest economy could influence ECB policy expectations.
• Monday, 16:40 GMT — ECB President Lagarde Speech: Any hints on the rate path given recent geopolitical developments and inflation data will move EUR pairs and European indices.
• Earnings Season — Tesla & Boeing: Two of the most watched names report this week. Tesla's numbers will drive NAS100 sentiment, whilst Boeing affects US30 directly. Expect volatility around their releases.

The biggest risk event is earnings — particularly Tesla on the tech side. A miss could derail the NAS100 rally quickly, whilst a beat could fuel another leg higher.

The Week Ahead — My Game Plan

I'm leaning bullish on US indices as long as we hold last week's breakout levels — 48,500 on US30 and 26,000 on NAS100. The rally has legs if earnings deliver and geopolitical tensions stay contained, but I'm not getting complacent. This week is about confirmation: do we consolidate and build a base, or do we reject and roll over? I'll be watching for pullbacks into support zones for long entries rather than chasing breakouts. As always, risk management comes first — if your setup invalidates, get out and wait for the next one. There's always another trade.