Weekly Market Outlook — 18 May 2026

Last week's risk-off tone carried into the close, with US indices pulling back from recent highs and the dollar flexing its muscles across the board. This week, I'm watching whether US30 can hold structural support around 49,300 or if we're due for a deeper retracement as geopolitical noise and inflation concerns keep traders defensive.

Last Week in Review

Last week delivered a classic risk-off rotation — US indices bled lower with the S&P 500 down 0.06%, NAS100 off 0.67%, and US30 shedding 0.36% to close at 49,526. The FTSE 100 fared worse, dropping 0.72% as sterling took a beating (GBP/USD down 2.08%). Meanwhile, precious metals got hammered — silver collapsed 14.66% in its worst weekly performance in years, while gold slipped 3.15%. Energy was the outlier, with Brent crude surging 5.28% on ongoing Iran tensions and supply concerns. It was a week where correlations broke down and defensiveness ruled.

US30 (Dow Jones) — Weekly Outlook

US30 (Dow Jones) Weekly Chart — EMA 9 (orange) & EMA 50 (blue) | Source: ChartsView

US30 closed the week at 49,526, down from a previous close of 50,063 — a bearish weekly candle that rejected the 50,200 highs and closed in the lower third of the range. The 5-day low at 49,307 is now critical support, with the psychological 49,000 level just beneath it. On the upside, resistance sits at the previous close of 50,063, with the 5-day high at 50,200 acting as the key barrier to any bullish continuation.

My bias this week is cautiously bearish below 50,000. The rejection from 50,200 and the failure to hold 50,000 suggests distribution, and if we lose 49,300, I'm looking for a move toward 48,500-48,800. However, a reclaim of 50,063 with conviction would flip me neutral and open the door back to 50,200. The setup I'm watching: if US30 breaks below 49,300 on volume, I'm looking for shorts targeting 48,800, with a stop above 49,600. Invalidation comes on a daily close back above 50,100 — that would signal the dip-buyers are back in control.

NAS100 (NASDAQ) — Weekly Outlook

NAS100 (Nasdaq 100) Weekly Chart — EMA 9 (orange) & EMA 50 (blue) | Source: ChartsView

NAS100 closed at 29,125, down 1.54% from the previous close of 29,580 — a decisive bearish candle that swept the 5-day low at 28,628 before recovering slightly. This is classic distribution behaviour. Support now sits at 28,628, with the round number 28,500 just below. Resistance is layered: 29,580 (previous close) and the 5-day high at 29,678.

I'm bearish below 29,500. Tech has been the weakest sector, and with Nvidia earnings on the calendar this week, volatility is guaranteed. If NAS100 fails to reclaim 29,500, I'm watching for a retest of 28,600 and potentially a flush toward 28,000. A break and hold above 29,678 would invalidate the bearish setup and suggest we're back in accumulation mode. The key this week is how tech reacts to earnings — if Nvidia disappoints, this could accelerate lower fast.

Quick Takes

S&P 500: Closed at 7,408, down 1.24% from 7,501 — holding above the 5-day low at 7,338, but struggling to reclaim 7,500. Neutral to bearish below that level.

FTSE 100: Weak close at 10,195, down 1.71% — broke below 10,200 support and now testing the 5-day low at 10,152. UK political uncertainty and sterling weakness are weighing heavily.

Gold: Closed at 4,549, down 0.13% but off 3.15% for the week. Holding above 4,483 support, but the shine is off as real yields tick higher. Watch 4,722 resistance for any recovery attempts.

GBP/USD: Brutal week for cable — down 2.08% to 1.3322, testing the 5-day low at 1.3304. UK political drama and dollar strength are a toxic combination. Support at 1.3300 is critical; a break opens 1.3100.

Key Events This Week

• Monday 18 May, 14:00 GMT — US NAHB Housing Market Index (May): Expected to hold at 34. Housing data has been weak, and any further deterioration could add to recession fears.
• Multiple BoE Speeches (Monday): BoE Greene at 08:35 GMT and BoE Mann at 09:30 GMT. With UK political uncertainty and inflation concerns, any hawkish tilt could support sterling — but the bar is high.
• Fed Venable Speech (Monday, 12:30 GMT): Fed speakers have been leaning hawkish recently. Any confirmation of a potential rate hike (as futures are now pricing) could strengthen the dollar further.
• Nvidia Earnings (Wednesday, after hours): Not on the calendar but mentioned in news context — this is the single biggest risk event for NAS100 this week. A miss or weak guidance could trigger a tech selloff.

The Week Ahead — My Game Plan

I'm starting the week with a bearish bias on US indices, particularly below the 50,000 level on US30 and 29,500 on NAS100. The price action is showing distribution, and with geopolitical tensions, inflation fears, and potential Fed hawkishness in play, the path of least resistance is lower. That said, I'm not married to the short side — if we reclaim last week's closes with conviction, I'll step aside and reassess. My focus is on clean breakdowns below support with follow-through, not chasing. As always, risk management comes first — size down in this environment, use stops religiously, and don't let one trade define your week. Let's see what the market gives us.